Panthers rumors, news, and speculation

Coples, and DE

2012-01-27T19:42:00.000-08:00

Carolina is staring down a look back at history in Quentin Coples - the athletic local pass rusher with all the tools who might or might not put it all together. If that doesn't remind you of Julius Peppers, you're not paying attention.

For what it's worth, before we get into the ends any further, I think there are major differences. Coples wasn't even the best edge rusher on his team - Paige-Moss was, and Peppers had elite level athletic ability where Coples is just above average (when he's turning it on, that is).

So let's talk about our ends. Charles Johnson earned his season salary through most of the season, a hefty pricetag that came along with a lot of plays made. He slowed past the halfway mark, and ended up hurt, but early on he was a legitimate sack a game DE who brought pressure and did everything right (excluding offsides penalties and penalties in general).

Greg Hardy, on the other hand, is on the field the same guy he is off - moody, and inconsistent. Hardy ended up with more pressures - 33 to 32, per profootballfocus.com - than Johnson, though he had more snaps to do it in and played healthy in the full season. He had 8 batted passes, to play out his own portion of the Julius Peppers analogy. He had more PFF "stops" - causing offensive failure - than Johnson. So we're set at end, right? Not in the least.

Charles Johnson didn't have the 90+ hurries from 2010, but the added attention he received in 2011 didn't stop him from excelling against the run. Johnson can clearly handle the attention, and the run. Hardy doesn't grade out well there, PFF listing him as their third highest graded player (Johnson first), but clearly struggling against the run (2nd worst, in their ratings system including backups). There was speculation that Hardy needed fewer snaps or a rotation system. There's no doubt he's talented, and has the bulk to play the run.

So, taking snaps off Hardy and Johnson? Undrafted Thomas Keiser and street FA pickup Antwan Applewhite. Really, not as bad as it seems, but if you had assigned their stats to Eric Norwood and Everette Brown, we're not talking about drafting an end. That duo, at one point penciled starters in preseason at different times, couldn't get out of their own way while Hardy was recovering from a motorcycle accident. Brown, obviously, is no longer with the team and Norwood somehow wasn't even exceptional at special teams.

So that left Keiser, who was on the practice squad at one point, who immediately lit it up in his first action with an open field tackle, and finished with four sacks; however the Stanford scrapper was deceiving, in that he only had 3 QB pressures with his four sacks and finished higher against the run. In reality, Keiser was a declared Junior without an offseason program, and should do well with professional training and a summer in the weight room, but he will have to re-earn his job.

Applewhite stepped in and filled the rush role off the street, and immediately became the other stand up rusher in the 3-4 sets. He was the only other guy with more than 10 pressures (14), and for someone who we picked up in week 5, played the 14th most snaps of defense. Not a bad bargain for the minimum. Now he's a free agent, but it's hard to say what happens or what the team plans to bring in.

So where does that leave us?

Nowhere on defense can we afford to not upgrade. The best man on defense we can get, anywhere, can be helpful. If you are convinced Coples is the next great right end in the NFL, you do take him. It moves Hardy more situational - he or Johnson, or really Coples, might end up rushing inside, giving you a pretty solid Giants-style DL (and don't forget, the pilot of that defense was Steve Spagnuolo, who runs the same Jim Johnson scheme). Coples would possibly be inside given that he's worked more at tackle than end in college lately, and is larger.

Same for South Carolina's Melvin Ingram, who's closer to Coples than many are willing to believe. The difference is, Ingram is squattier, and less athletic, but I don't see much difference on the field. I see a more compact guy for your same 270 lbs, with a better motor. Less upside? Maybe. But, you know you'll get all out effort, and that's big.

Either guy, in a 3-4 one-gap, could move to the 5-technique and rush (you saw a lot of it with JJ Watt if you watched the Texans in the playoffs). It's a nice luxury that you may also get later with Nebraska's Jared Crick, or further down with Trevor Guyton of Cal (who seems to be slipping).

But, if you look specifically at the need and what this team wants to do - does a team that suggests aggressiveness and zone blitzing require a blue chip end to go with its existing guy (and a second, Hardy, with blue chip pedigree)? Or is it better to go after the 280 lb guy who can rush, and drop him in at left end to drop Hardy's snaps per game from 56 to a more manageable 45? Guyton, as an example, could play more run snaps in the second quarter and on, play disciplined contain and set the edge, but stay in his space and react; then he could rush inside, allowing both Hardy and Johnson to stay at it.

All while the team can spend more on corner, DT, even LB if needed.

While I'm on that, if you're looking for a 2 for 1 deal on a football player up top, and the idea of Coples playing inside or outside is more interesting than actually drafting Coples, consider this:

Alabama.

I'm not much on Bowl season being the sum total of a fan's scouting, but anyone had to have sesn the display that Courtney Upshaw put on against LSU. Upshaw is a 6'3, 260 lb OLB who can rush like an end - hand work, knee bend, body lean, all of it. He can beat offensive tackles. And, he's an attacking downhill linebacker who sheds well.

So why not strongside? Carolina has James Anderson, who can move around; they have catastrophic injuries to overcome in Thomas Davis and Jon Beason. And they have no depth behind them (Dan Connor is UFA). Upshaw is a guy you can stand up for the 3-4, and not miss a beat; he's a guy you can stand up in the 4-3 and, if you must, drop back. He's a guy you can edge rush in nickel, and while he's not as sudden as Von Miller, that's a lot to ask of anyone.

If that high first round pick is rich for your tastes for a blitz guy, the 6'4 260 lb inside linebacker counterpart for Alabama seems more than able to do the same things in the second round (and also gives you that inside linebacker ability/mentality).

This last bit isn't about end, but if you can get by with a Guyton or a modest FA like Juqua Parker (who fits), why not? You stop the run, you add a rush body, and then you have the ability to play with your first rounder and possibly take the best impact for your buck in an Upshaw.

Just as an example. Or you can get nutty and draft Coples to play the three technique fulltime. Who knows.

Munnerlyn V/S All Takers?

2012-01-24T19:54:00.001-08:00

Captain Munnerlyn pays attention to rumors and, possibly, message boards.

So, in a contract year, Munnerlyn says that the corner talk has to stop, while making a ballsy but not necessarily wise display around his new position coach.

Munnerlyn is a one year starter, and struggled in that year despite being pretty decent in starting time in 2010 for a game or two. He's a valuable commodity, but at his best he hasn't shown worth a big contract, and I doubt he'll get one elsewhere. So is he your starter?

He thinks so, but the struggles suggest otherwise. Is he a good nickel corner who fits this defense well for his physicality, scrappiness, and even ability to blitz? Yeah, those things in my opinion are true. And with new DBs coach Steve Wilks likely to help make more changes than old DBs coach/new Chargers DB coach Ron Meeks (which is weird, but good luck Ron), Captain should be ready for the fight he says he'll win.

The end result is, and it's been well documented here, the DBs weren't good. And while we might be stuck with the safeties to a point, we only have loyalty to the CB who earned it - Gamble. Otherwise, Munnerlyn can earn the start, he can play nickel and return punts, or he can be a 4th CB who runs punts down.

Options?

So now that Munnerlyn has guaranteed himself competition for his job, what will Carolina do?

It might be something grand. But it's hard to say.

A week ago, you could say that Morris Claiborne or Dre Kirkpatrick might be there at Carolina's pick, but with the weed bust for Kirkpatrick, he's fallen while Claiborne has risen. I'm still fine with the physical, and possibly more talented, Kirkpatrick. In the second round you can still be festive at corner, picking up a Jannoris Jenkins or Chase Minnifield (though Minnifield's support has been wavering lately). Draft value will change a lot over time but corners tend to hold value; all of the above represent an upgrade and fit more what the Panthers will do long term.

Each of them fit the man coverage, disguise cover 3/6, zone blitz concepts that Ron Rivera and Sean McDermott will put together (you'd guess - there was a lot more man this year than expected, and who knows how this defense will evolve for the long term considering the pass threats in the NFL). Munnerlyn is a cover 2 guy who has experience and can play the slot WR, but just doesn't represent what the team appears to want - in my opinion, a 6'+, 210 lb+, physical corner who can hold his own and make plays.

Captain is a local guy with a funny name, so he's endeared here. But the outburst, swagger and all, sounds more like worry than legitimate confidence. Let's hope that Munnerlyn doesn't pay attention to metrics websites, we need him to have more confidence than that.

Now - that said, that should be all for defensive backs for a bit. What started as analysis of the DBs turned into numerous posts in a row on them, but the defense will get full coverage soon enough.

Hired - Steve Wilks, DBs coach

2012-01-14T15:11:00.001-08:00

Steven Wilks comes to Carolina as defensive backs coach, replacing the recently fired Ron Meeks. Wilks was the DBs coach under Ron Rivera with the Chargers, and stayed for an additional year. Wilks was not fired, but his contract was up, allowing him to leave.

Wilks was Norv Turner's assistant head coach last year, promoted after Rob Chudzinski left last year (in a similar situation - his contract simply expired and he left). Wilks, therefore, as assistant head coach, was considered Turner's right hand man, and that's never a terrible deal.

There might be an alternate theory - that Wilks was promoted because he wasn't allowed to leave - and therefore got the additional title and money, to not leave. But then he would've likely been given an additional contract length, and that didn't happen. The Chargers were searching for a replacement because they apparently knew Wilks was leaving. Turner, who probably should've just promoted John Pagano when Rivera left, did so after firing Greg Manusky this year. That wasn't an incorrect move but may have allowed Wilks to walk.

If Wilks was in our plans after one year, where did that leave Ron Meeks? A further conspiracy might suggest that Meeks wasn't kept for any other reason than to place-hold for Wilks, who would've been Rivera's first choice; it wasn't to fulfill a contract obligation, as Meeks wasn't signed for longer than John Fox and his contract would've expired in 2010 as well. Either way, as hopeful as the Meeks hiring looked, it was a merit firing - Carolina needed change and Meeks' Cover 2 teaching didn't fit in our man, zone blitz, and disguise coverage looks.

Wilks was a collegiate player at Appalachian State, and returned to his hometown of Charlotte to play for the Arena franchise, the Rage. After numerous stops at Division II teams as a coordinator, he coached DBs for Notre Dame and Washington, then was hired onto the Lovie Smith/Ron Rivera Bears in 2006; he reunited with Rivera in 09-10 as his DBs coach again.

I personally hope that, even if no other moves are made (still hoping for that ST coach change to Taub), that the team hires an assistant DBs coach, a young guy that can help out (this is always where I felt like Mike Minter could've helped us).

Meeks as DBs coach, in the singular, was the first coach in many years that didn't have help. Alvin Reynolds was the assistant DBs coach here in 2002, and he became a Jaguars assistant under Jack Del Rio (third tier assistants can easily leave, if they're offered position coach work), Ken Flajole was the assistant the year after (he ended up taking over for Sam Mills, and then left for the Rams job he just lost), and Mike Gilhamer was the safeties coach after that.

Any DBs coach can use a hand (given that up to 9 may dress, and camp may have up to 25), so I'd be in favor of giving him just that; as well, DC Sean McDermott and the position coaches have always been on the field. No one of real authority on defense is in the coach's booth. Assistant DBs coach Cris Dishman, a former All-Pro, was Wilks's counterpart in San Diego, and is also free of a contract, so hopefully they pull off something like that.

Wilks has his work cut out for him - Chris Gamble was well above average, but the rest of the secondary is, at best, in transition or underperforming.

Ron Meeks: Fired

2012-01-13T16:47:00.000-08:00

DBs coach Ron Meeks was fired today, per the Charlotte Observer.

Meeks, formerly the DC in Carolina in 2009-2010, and in Indianapolis 2002-2008, was retained as DBs coach last year by Ron Rivera, in what was considered a savvy move.

However, defensive back struggles as I documented here, and exascerbated by the final Saints game, apparently made changes necessary. Meeks' unit, the one least changed by offseason moves, or injury - or really, even coaching since they retained him - was at times as bad as any part of the defense.

It's uncertain if any other moves are coming - while I'm not a fan of letting coaches go in year one, I wouldn't be totally against ST coach Brian Murphy going if it meant Dave Toub coming on - or if Sean McDermott is safe himself.

Mularkey to JAX

2012-01-10T19:16:00.000-08:00

Mike Mularkey is supposed to be named the next head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars, presumably erasing the largest threat to the Panthers losing OC Rob Chudzinski. To this point, Chud has only interviewed with the Jags, and Carolina hasn't been asked permission to allow him to talk to others.

As of now, that's the first new hire of the 2012 season (Romeo Crennel is also staying). The Rams and Dolphins both have auxiliary candidates but may be sent scrambling, based on Jeff Fisher; Tampa Bay appears to be looking at veteran coaches (Mike Sherman, Marty Schottenheimer).

The remaining bad news? Oakland and Indy are still in the process as well, the Oakland job opening just today. The Indy job will be open, soon.

The upside is that Hue Jackson being released in Oakland would make for a fantastic replacement OC, if we required one. Like Chudzinski, Jackson is a Coryell guy, and he's had success everywhere he's been - and didn't deserve to be let go in the power struggle in Oakland.

Cornerbacks/Safeties?

2012-01-08T14:10:00.001-08:00

I'm still scattered as I attempt to get back into the swing of posting regularly. My hope is to go into a little detail on what we have, and what we need, so that what we should do will become more clear as all of the information is out there.

Anyone who hasn't successfully blocked the last Saints game from their mind remembers how much we need defensive backs. The problems with the DBs were maddening - that unit was the only one without a lapse in continuity in coaching or injury, where other units had both. Ron Meeks made an able secondary as coordinator in 09-10, but as DBs coach it didn't work out.

Chris Gamble was, by far, the star of this group. Rated 18th by ProFootballFocus, his QB rating was in the 40s until the Saints game, and finished at 54.8 (6th overall). He barely got targeted, didn't give up a lot of completions when doing so, but his base numbers don't look as great with 3 INT/7 defended passes. Gamble can excel doing anything - he was drafted for the deep cover 3 of John Fox, was excellent last year in the cover 2 despite his benching for off the field concerns, and now is doing well in the various man and zone fronts of this scheme. Gamble's crutch was missed tackles, where his 13 were 4th worst for the team.

Captain Munnerlyn had a good 2010 - showed to play the ball more, had a low completion percentage - but failed at coverage this year (126 QB rating, 4th worst, and allows completions at a 73% rate). He's a football player moreso than starting corner, not because of his height specifically, but just that he's a 7th rounder who's playing up to a 5th round level. Munnerlyn's a free agent after 2012, and hasn't earned more than to be a nickel at this point.

Brandon Hogan was the lone injury exception, but having drafted him with an ACL injury, Carolina had to know that Hogan wasn't going to be ready. So, he wasn't, and Carolina didn't get a good look at him outside of a handful of plays.

Darius Butler was an OK outside cover guy at times, but gives up a lot - there was a reason he was available - and at a 117 QB rating, he isn't that great. RJ Stanford is notable for coming into a few games and being prepared, but that's about all.

So - in retrospect, at one point Richard Marshall was available cheaply (though he probably never looked back, ignoring that no one else would pay him bigtime and just focusing on that we wouldn't), and he had a good year. The coked-up version of the same hindsight says Carlos Rogers had one of the better corner years, and he wasn't expensive either (he is now, however).

At safety, Carolina had three young safeties, Charles Godfrey going into year 4, Sherrod Martin into his second full starting year, and Jordan Pugh was very good in relief. Both had OK moments, but neither put together good seasons. Martin was our third worst run defender, and the pair of starters combined to make up 1/3 of our missed tackles. The unit is not physical, and it's not a big enough playmaking unit to

Godfrey's QB rating was a mediocre 92, Martin's an OK 82. Pugh struggled, topping 110.

The problem with Godfrey being the bigger problem in coverage is this - he's signed for five more years, and due an option bonus that won't make it any easier to get rid of him. He's here to stay for the long term.

So, now what?

On paper, cornerback seems as likely a place to go with the 1st round pick as any. There are up to two guys there that could help (Alabama's Dre Kirkpatrick, LSU's Morris Claiborne), both cover guys who have the physical size and athleticism you expect, to go along with what seems to be a lack of mistakes and good playmaking ability. Either, to go with Gamble, could create a lot better defensive matchup versus big, physical attacks like New Orleans, Atlanta that they face twice a year. That would leave Munnerlyn at nickel, and Hogan has a year to play special teams to help out.

But that leaves a lot less room at safety, where there needs to be a push to get better. With the above plan, the best you can hope for is landing a SS like Sean Richardson at the top of 4, having him play special teams for a year, and hoping that the team sees enough out of him to improve on what's there (Richardson, a 6'2, 220 lb prospect, will have to show he can be athletic enough to be out there, but will be a killer special teamer).

The somewhat cerebral Pugh, or the athletic Martin, or both, need to find their way down to corner if legitimate upgrading is to be done at S. That would leave legitimate room for
But, would Martin and Hogan be enough to turn 2012 into a positive coverage year? If not, is it worth it to still have to put a higher pick into cornerback?

There's always the wildcard idea - Carolina goes and gets a CB in FA, for instance. Asante Samuel is a good fit (though Samuel had a great year in coverage, similar to Gamble in QBRating, completion percentage, and so on, he was a minor run liability, and Carolina has enough of those), if he'll play for a year on a decent contract to earn more. That would allow Carolina to look at safety in the second, for instance, and pull a guy who can contribute.

Signs Are Pointing Toward Continuity

2012-01-07T17:40:00.000-08:00

Most teams don't have to worry about continuity at the end of year one, but this is the Carolina Panthers. The George Seifert regime had a coordinator depart after year one, and then a second after four more games. John Fox lost Jack Del Rio after a year.

So, now a year into Ron Rivera's tenure, the concern was losing either or both stellar young offensive coaches: OC Rob Chudzinski interviewed with the Jaguars this week, and QBs coach Mike Shula had been rumored to go to the University of Florida as OC.

For now, it looks like there will be no change.

Jay Gruden is the assumed front runner for the Jags job, and the Bengals just lost in the first round of the playoffs. Florida is likely to pickup Boise State's Brent Pease as OC. No other teams are looking for head coaches in Chud's direction right now, so it looks like the offensive staff will get another year before being picked apart.

There's a far less likely, but still possible, way for Carolina to change things up. With former Rivera associate and friend Dave Toub on the market (talking to Miami about a head coaching job, but not looking all that likely depending on Jeff Fisher), I'd like to see that as an upgrade over current ST coach Brian Murphy.

You don't fire a guy without a good reason, and Murphy's special teams were the worst part of the Panthers in 2011. The team lost numerous games that included a special teams touchdown, Olindo Mare lost two more with missed FGs, and little production showed up in return teams.

Toub, who worked with Rivera for three years in Philadelphia, and the pair moved to Chicago together in 2004, working together for three more years. He was special teams coach of the year in 2007.

Cap Hits?

2012-01-06T18:41:00.000-08:00

Carolina has $124 million in contracts and bonuses that will count against the salary cap, currently in the top 5 of contracts signed.

Upside? Carolina has most of the guys they want signed, signed. Downside? They have major issues if they want to make many moves.

So who goes?

First, consider the cap still works as it did prior to the new CBA. 2012 signing bonuses, as of now, have already counted. They aren't changeable. 2013 and further bonuses, if that contract is severed, will escalate.

Example - random backup WR for the Panthers signed a 5 year $10 million deal, two years ago (so three remaining). The signing bonus was $5 million, and each year's salary is $1 million. To cut that player this year, the $1 million in current salary is saved (and future salary ceases to exist), and the future years' worth of bonus proration ($5 million total leaves $1 million per year) counts against the cap instead (2 remaining years, since 2012 has counted, means $2 million, minus the $1 million of saved salary means it still costs you $1 million to cut this player).

Second, let's look at special teams.

Punter Jason Baker is due $1.5 million in salary, and it's his final contract year in 2012 so his bonus amount ($337,000) is irrelevant - it counts no matter what. So, cutting Baker saves you $1.5 million. Baker was an erratic punter, whose lack of control helped cause numerous special teams issues, so it's safe to see that Baker should be worried.

Kicker Olindo Mare just signed his deal last year, signing for $4 million. 2011 is passed, and 2012 has counted, so $2 million of that still counts if cut, versus a $2.1 million salary and $100k workout bonus. So, Mare saves you $200,000 to cut, not as much as you might hope. But, it's still better than costing you cap space to cut him and sign another kicker as well.

Offense

Steve Smith enters 2012 in prime position - he's minded his manners for a few years, even gritting his teeth through 2010 somewhat well. He's had a Pro Bowl year, and comes into his final season with a $7.75 million salary. Bonus is irrelevant, as it's already counted. So, Carolina will inevitably come to Smith looking for an extension, even at his age (32), to extend him for guaranteed money and future years in exchange for a lowered 2012 cap hit. There's room to save around $5 million, depending on the length of the deal, but if Carolina and Smith are smart, they won't build in too many bonuses and work on salary. The future cap rules seem to favor players without past earnings counting against the cap.

Travelle Wharton had an up and down year at guard, but was a solid relief tackle. Wharton is two years out of finishing his contract, costing $7.7 and $7.9 million this year and next. That's a lot for a guard who just hit 30, and had a lot of struggles early in this season (he finished well, and is still a mobile player, as evidenced by his solid play at LT against Atlanta and good work as a lead blocker and in the screen game). So will his contract be his undoing?

Wharton's due a $5.7 million salary, against the 2013 portion of his signing bonus ($2 mil), for a $3.7 million savings.

Jordan Gross is almost entirely salary - he makes $8.5 million next year, versus a salary cap proration of $1.6 million. If Gross ever falls off on his play, it'll be easy to cut him - conversely, he could very easily guarantee most of that $8.5 million, which makes it a bonus - 1/3 would count this year, of course, and count $2.66 million, the rest of which would prorate to next year and leave a $5.33 million savings.

Currently, cutting or renegotiating Gross stands as the cleanest way to save money, but he won't be let go and he probably won't renegotiate. His low, $5 million bonus when signing creates a greater longevity for Gross compared to others on this list, and his play can be occasionally be maddening (facing Jared Allen, for instance), but he grades out as Carolina's best OL this year (and fourth best rated player overall) by profootballfocus.com.

Jeff Otah is in the final year of his deal, a rookie deal that even for a mid first rounder is a bargain compared to Wharton's $35 million or Jordan Gross' $60 million - if only he could stay healthy. He likely doesn't go anywhere, but since he's in the final year, the whole 2012 savings would be his salary ($1,067,250).

Jimmy Clausen, who Carolina would privately like to recoup value on, might or might not have trade value this year, but comes with a $1.25 million signing bonus escalation if traded (versus a $490,000 salary savings). So, value at a cost - whereas a trade after 2012 would have the team break even, roughly.

Defense

Thomas Davis, based on what Ron Rivera and Jerry Richardson have both said, seems to be a guy the team wants to have return. But it gets tricky, and probably goes outside of the scope of the restructure or release type cap situation we've discussed.

Davis has a $7 million bonus (1.4 mil per year, and two years have counted, leaving
$4.2 million to account for), versus a $2.2 million salary. Already in the hole, the option bonus due Davis would be another $8.25 million to keep (2.05 million more against the cap). Carolina could choose not to pay the bonus, but that would eliminate Davis' contract, save the salary, and cost the bonus - $2 million debt against the cap compared to where you are right now, for a player you no longer have. The only way to ensure both sides come out fair, is to guarantee most of the salary ($1.5 million of it), erase all or at least most of the option bonus, and reset so that it helps both sides. It'll take a complete renegotiation of the existing contract, not just moving money around.

Jon Beason doesn't have that issue, having gotten all of his money up front. $3.33 million counts every year against the cap for his $20 million bonus, but his 2012 salary is $1.25 million (so there's no room to work).

Ron Edwards never made the field, but brought home $4 million. Of that, $2.5 million was bonus, over three years (two years have counted, so 1/3, $833,333, hasn't). So Edwards' $1.5 mil salary minus bonus proration is $666,666. At that value, it's somewhat worth seeing if he can return to his positive form as a roleplayer at DT.

Charles Godfrey is due a $5 million option bonus, which versus the remaining proration ($3.3 million) and $700k salary savings, guarantees Godfrey will be back and the option bonus will be added on as a signing bonus. It's amazing that Godfrey will have pocketed $10 million in guarantees, for a very average player.

Senior Bowl - Missed Opportunity

2012-01-06T18:26:00.000-08:00

Carolina wasn't selected to coach at the Senior Bowl, an opportunity that Ron Rivera laments.

"If they'd given us the opportunity to do it, we would have done it," Rivera said. "Any time you can go and coach it, it gives you the opportunity to get in front of the guys."

The Senior Bowl is about as close as NFL teams get to working out prospects live, and it's an event that's attended by more NFL employees and hopefuls than anywhere else, excluding the much larger NFL combine. In the combine, you get a handful of workouts, and it's where most teams do the bulk of interviewing and testing.

The Senior Bowl is a game, run by two NFL teams - a big advantage. They get their hands on players for days in a row. They get to put them through live contact against other guys, and actively coach them into what will fit the team's needs.

As well, it's become a major networking event in the league, where coaches go to look to fill out staffs and unemployed coaches and scouts try to get in front of an NFL difference maker.

Carolina coached the Senior Bowl once, in 2000.

Don't Forget Shula

2012-01-05T16:57:00.000-08:00

Panthers OC Rob Chudzinski is undoubtedly one of the promising young coaches of the year, after taking the bottom-feeding 2010 offense into the upper echelon of the NFL in 2011. While Carolina finished 7th*, its lowest ranking of the year, it was still a masterful performance that also saw the rushing attack finish 3rd, and 1st in yards per attempt.

Chudzinski showed a mastery of running the offense, and tailored the Coryell attack to Cam Newton's strengths. He integrated the option attack into a pro offense and made it legitimately work. He took a young QB who had no business getting 400 yards per game in his first two weeks, and put him in as the centerpiece of a resurgent attack.

But that's where he needs to start sharing the credit. Chudzinski, a guy with plenty of experience as a TEs coach and offensive coordinator, has never coached quarterbacks. Mike Shula, of course, has. Shula was the one spending time with mostly Newton, while Chudzinski put the offense together. Shula, undoubtedly, gave input on what Cam can and can't do.

And, as a guy who attempted, and almost succeeded, in getting Tim Tebow to Alabama, he likely had as much say in the option packages as anything. Chudzinski, of course, ran a sophisticated pro style attack with the University of Miami, not unlike what we've seen here excluding the option runs.

Certainly, Shula isn't Chudzinski, but he deserves his part of the coaching credit. When Jerry Richardson and Marty Hurney mentioned offensive coaches (to go with their intended defensive hire), they did mention QBs coach. There's no doubt they spent to get Shula, and they knew he was going to be a big part of it all. We don't get this far without him, as well.

*a few things worked against Carolina at the end - taking the throttle off the Bucs, and folding completely against New Orleans. 11 yards per game separated Carolina and third place Green Bay.

Naanee's throwback

2011-12-11T05:24:00.001-08:00

Cam Newton's trick play (credited to Scott Turner, apparently) against Tampa Bay - which is saying something for a pro QB who runs a triple option - was a throwback from, and to, Legedu Naanee.

The most critical and interesting thing about that wasn't having a franchise QB catch a 20 yard pass that almost went the distance (and gives wildcat plays some legitimacy). It's that Naanee was the only other player so far to throw a football for Carolina. That's impressive, and right on plan.

Once you draft a guy like that, who needs the reps, you give it to him. Kudos, Carolina.

Naanee became the 15th non-QB to throw a pass (in the best chronological order I can come up with, Eric Guliford, Vince Workman, Guliford again, Ken Walter (P), William Floyd, Walter, Richard Huntley, Dee Brown, Todd Sauerbrun, Steve Smith, Ricky Proehl, Proehl again, Deshaun Foster, Keyshawn Johnson, Armanti Edwards, Brandon LaFell, and now Naanee). Eleven of those players, including 2/3rd of the guys with two shots at it, had incompletions. Guliford was 1/2, with one INT and one 46 yard reception. Notably, Richard Huntley somehow also has a sack; Brown, Johnson, and Floyd had INT to go with Guliford's.

Naanee, because of a single 20+ yard throw, was able to make it to 21st in pro passing for Carolina. Newton is the first QB to catch a pass from scrimmage, to go with his 13th rushing touchdown and 13th passing touchdown.

Might only be interesting to me, but it's interesting.

Mike Shula Not Going Anywhere

2011-12-10T14:19:00.000-08:00

It seemed unlikely to me anyway, but it seems the uproar over Mike Shula leaving to be the OC of the Florida Gators is unfounded.

Shula came up as a potential OC candidate there, having a pro-style experience in college in the past and fitting with what they wanted. Shula, obviously, has ties to football in the state of Florida and has spent most of his career there in some form.

Carolina is, excluding a couple years as TE coach of the Bears, the furthest north he's ever coached.

And yet, here's why college makes no sense for Shula. He doesn't seem to be interested in it. He's coached four total years in college, and that was exclusively to coach his alma mater, Alabama. Has his career taken such a hit that he should be an OC in college? He could, if wanted, probably land an OC job in the pros at this point.

Pat Dooley of the local-to-UF Gainesville paper, states Shula isn't involved in this hunt. That could be an opinion, but there's also that suggestion by Dooley that UF won't hire anyone until after the bowl game - after the pro games have also ended.

Coworker Robbie Andreu, of the same paper, states that Shula as of yesterday was "a target", and went on to cite that Tim Tebow was heavily recruited by Shula for Alabama, and that the two were close - which could almost guarantee the job. Of course, Tebow isn't a UF official, it's just an anecdote to sell to UF fans.

I personally hope there's no movement in the offensive staff at all, but if they lose Shula, it hurts. It might be smart to target outgoing UNC offensive coordinator John Shoop, a former Carolina QBs coach who's well versed in the Coryell principles but has time in college as well.

If Indinapolis' staff is cut, Ron Turner makes sense - the staff is full of Norv Turner disciples, and therefore Coryell guys - he has coordinator experience, he's been on staff with Rivera (in Chicago), and makes sense to back Rod Chudzinski. He seemed like a logical choice as OC, but luckily IMO never came into consideration. If not for Rivera ties and the idea that Jim Harbaugh wanted him at Stanford (before getting hired in Indy), I wouldn't worry about Turner, who was awful in Chicago. Turner was Shoop's boss as OC while with the Bears as well.

Frank Reich tends to make sense, too, but is young on experience.

WRs work around Naanee

2011-11-26T20:36:00.000-08:00

Not much to say about last week's blowout (stay the course - don't panic) or this week's game against Indy (we should win). I've almost published probably 30 stories this week and last, sorry about the lack of finishing for the few who read. I'm trying to figure outwhat the purpose of all this is, where it's going. In the meantime, I'm proud of Keiser's work the last few weeks, and here's a story about using others in place of Legedu Naanee.

Legedu Naanee might be out versus the Colts, and while it's not like losing Steve Smith, it's still losing a starting WR on a team that uses three receivers extensively.

So, now what?

Brandon LaFell is the obvious answer, and for many the answer ends there. But Carolina does use 3 guys a lot - even when not three wide, there's a lot of moving in and out of games for he and LaFell. LaFell starting isn't the only moving part.

Narrowing it down to just the extra WR (to negate the "use more TE", "use Olson as a WR" type conversations), you have the two slot WR/speed options, Kealoha Pilares or Armanti Edwards, and the size/speed outside option, Seji Ajirotutu. Tutu is the experienced one of the group, and so far Steve Smith has been the only receiver under 6' to play for Carolina this year. Ajirotutu is likely the one to benefit from the snaps. He has the wide catching radius and overall ability to benefit working with a sometimes-erratic Newton.

On the other hand, the slot pair could offer some level of change of pace, a new wrinkle to show. Pilares has been more explosive, but both he and Edwards can offer a backside WR screen, reverse, even option back look for Carolina that the bigger WR won't, and naturally a vertical option that will need to be developed over time.

It looks like all three will be active this week, and the team brought up Darvin Adams from the practice squad as well. It's possible that Naanee returns next week, Lafell goes back to #3, and Adams returns to the PS and Jerome Felton gets his job back*, and all of this was largely useless speculation.

But, with that said, there'd be time to discuss the failings at fullback, where Felton and Richie Brockel have done a middling job and Tony Fiammetta is killing it in Dallas.

v/s jaguars, 9/25/11

2011-09-25T09:49:00.000-07:00

I doubt anyone circled the Jaguars game on the Panthers' calendar and saw it as the game that it all turns around, as the game that makes them champions.

But, it does stand as their likeliest place in their schedule to grab a win early.

Carolina's not on its game right now. It doesn't do the John Fox things well yet. But it does put the ball in the air, and it wants the opponent to do the same. So far, Cam Newton has rapidly exceeded expectations, even with continuing flaws. It's hard to imagine anyone with realistic expectations having Newton being able to get out of the team's way at this point in his career, but despite inefficiency and inconsistency, he's shortening the field.

On the other side, Blaine Gabbert seems to have been "the other choice". Many reports suggest AJ Green, the top rated receiver in the draft, was Carolina's second choice, but realistically it seemed they were locked into a quarterback at that spot. Gabbert had similar issues as Newton - spread offense, inexperience, inconsistency. He's a less risky prospect on paper, but he hasn't shown he has "it", that magical intangible that Newton apparently oozes.

Gabbert's first start probably won't mean much to the outside world, or Carolina. Even symbolically, it's a bit of a stretch outside of speculation. But it's good motivation for Gabbert himself, who was a third stringer one month ago and now faces an NFL defense for the first time. The Jaguars would've definitely had a chance with David Garrard, now cut; now, like Carolina, they're in full rebuild.

Behind Gabbert, they have Maurice Jones-Drew. This is trouble - Arizona and Green Bay didn't have backs like this and did well. MJD is a breakaway player. There's nothing to say here other than stay in your gaps, and stay disciplined. He'll get his. Jones-Drew caught 34 balls last year, but anticipate more today, including numerous screens. Deji Karim is the backup, an uneventful 2010 6th rounder who isn't good inside.

The other threats are TEs Marcedes Lewis, who brings a physical speed, and change of pace FB Greg Jones. Jones hasn't become the Michael Turner some anticipated, and he isn't a receiver threat (which limits his exposure), but he does get to be a threat on counters and fakes, and is a load at fullback.

At receiver, it's been hard to see what they have; Mike Sims-Walker has taken his 5 catches for 40 yards a game elsewhere. Mike Thomas, at 5'8, 190, was their leading receiver last year, and returns. Jason Hill isn't much, and he's banged up, but Kassim Osgood is inactive and hurt also. There shouldn't be many problems matching up outside, but the blitzes have to be good inside to not allow Lewis to run wild up the seam. Carolina has to go without Thomas Davis (season, dammit) and Charles Godfrey in coverage, making life tougher. It will be interesting to see how Thomas Williams and Jordan Pugh do in their respective replacement roles.

Look for Gabbert to dump it off all day, attempting to get into a rhythm. Outside of vet Brad Meester at center, the Jags' OL has 3 years time in the league and a little more than a year's playing experience. Without much deep threat to consider, expect a good bit of single high safety and pressure from Carolina.

Jacksonville comes in with their top two rushers - high dollar Aaron Kampmann and recent signee Matt Roth - inactive. Austen Lane, a small college sophomore, starts; he has 0 career sacks. The roster is littered with defensive free agents - MLB Paul Posluszny, Kampmann, Roth, FS Dawan Landry, WLB Clint Session. With their rushers out, underwhelming interior penetrator Tyson Alualu won't likely impact.

At corner, Rashean Mathis has mellowed from his playmaking days in the middle of the last decade, and now seems to hang his hat more on longevity. He can be beaten deep, but he gets help. The younger Derek Cox, at 6'1, 200, is more a matchup guy, a little more physical. He's fighting a rib injury but did practice in full this Wednesday.

This is a bland, cover 2/3 team, the type that was run early in the 2000s when the John Fox/Marvin Lewis schemes worked best on tendency rather than power or scheme. I'm not sure, especially with rushers on the bench, Del Rio has what it takes to create pressure on Newton, and Newton has undoubtedly been better without pressure. That's what this may come down to - Newton having time to throw deep, where he's very good, and then seeing if the Carolina running game can somehow show up to bring it home while their defense attempts to make Gabbert falter under pressure.

V/s Steelers, 4th Preseason

2011-09-02T15:19:00.000-07:00

It was good to see the first offense doing well. Cam Newton suddenly looks poised again, and his 3/5 for 25 yards and a TD, to go with a 19 yard run, was good to see. No jump passes, not much wrong mechanically. If they can micromanage his game to look like that all year, he'll get out of being a disastrous rookie.

Jeff Otah came in for the first time since 2009 - having he and Thomas Davis back makes a big difference - and it showed. Newton had time to throw. Otah went out early, and the backups were terrible.

Along with those backups, the first defense had some major issues, continuing to be ineffective blitzing and unable to keep gap integrity. Tackling had improved prior to this game, but relapsed.

Later in the night, the depth chart started to take a different shape. Derek Anderson might be the team's #2 QB - and going 11/19 for almost 200 yards (which would've put him high on the single game bests for passing last year) and a score was great to see. Anderson is a starting level player, and hopefully they won't need him, but if so, he can help win football games. He moves the chains. He's not that accurate, and he's not really that consistent, but when he puts it together it works well.

Along with that, David Clowney cemented himself on the roster again this year with another great deep ball. Clowney separated from the field, which included an early-rising Charly Martin and last year's big free agent pickup, the modestly priced special teamer Wallace Wright. Wright didn't make plays receiving or in special teams until late in the 4th quarter of this game, which isn't good enough, but on a team with fewer young WRs, he'll make a great addition.

Jimmy Clausen, apparently moved to #3, fared worse, going 7/17 with an INT.

Josh Vaughan showed up as the #4 RB (technically, Deangelo Williams took the night off) and showed up well after some solid runs by Jon Stewart and Mike Goodson. Looks like Tyrell Sutton won't make the cut.

Outside of that, not much remarkable happened, the Steelers' backups overpowered the Panthers', and maybe the players involved can all work early shifts at the Burger Whistle and have a beer together to reminisce.

v/s Miami, 2nd Preseason

2011-08-21T08:01:00.001-07:00

What a mess. Looks like, to a point, a young team came in a lot less ready, and possibly more full of itself, than last week.

Make no mistake, Cam Newton isn't ready. He lacked last week's poise, and had more bad mechanics plays than last week. There were a few runs, and suddenly it was realized that simply taking off isn't worth a first down anymore. Needless to say, Newton's going to be involved this year, but it's a lot less than many anticipated. Of course, 7-14 looks better than last week's 8 of 19, but there weren't many downfield passes. And I don't believe 4 rushes for 18 yards was what he envisioned out of his first start, either.

Jimmy Clausen was an efficient 9 for 15, but didn't often come up with any more efficiency than Newton. There was only one deep shot downfield - a David Clowney shot that came back - so the theory of a deep ball offense ended up looking more West Coast than Coryell. There was no Derek Anderson - the guy who came in at the end of last week and was not only the first guy to get a 3rd down conversion, but also a scoring drive. At this point, I know they will have to field Newton doing something, but I almost want to see Anderson starting more than Clausen (who deserves another shot here, if possible, before eventually being sent off for value). At this point the team is more important than either young QB, both of which are just so green. I also wouldn't mind winning a few football games and don't see it happening without third down conversions.

The defense, of course, got plenty of work in, 2010 style. They couldn't get off the field, in the same fashion that the offense couldn't stay on. They had trouble stopping Reggie Bush, the perfect guy to thwart a blitzing defense - his draws and swing passes gave him 88 yards from scrimmage quickly. A rusty Thomas Davis had some great plays, and some misses. Same for James Anderson. The backup defense quickly entered around the second quarter, while the expensive Miami OL pounded them for long drives.

Complex v/s Simple; Conservative v/s Simple

2011-08-21T08:00:00.000-07:00

Very interesting to read ongoing discussion about the changes in scheme, and that’s one of the great things about regime change in the NFL – the newness extends out to the systems and why the new system is going to be ‘better’. I don’t mean that derisively toward the new coaches – I legitimately like what both coordinators have installed. Past that there’s a relative guarantee that any well coached team will have success, and that change to a new system brings an initial bump of play from players who were ground down in the last one.

But we’re definitely more complex this year, a bit of an issue that has cost coaches the ability to install plays with young players. The offense is significantly pared down, and the defense may not be able to work in much multiple-front defense (3-4 looks, moving personnel around, and things like the newer fads – Psycho defense, one or two DL type sets). A simpler set might’ve been almost fully installed by now.

Some of this is prompted by this very good article about the implementation of a simple philosophy coach (Tom Moore) into the world of a young quarterback and OC combo (Mark Sanchez/Brian Schottenheimer). The Jets are a Coryell team like us, and because that means 100 ways to do one thing, it definitely clashes with the ideals Moore uses (which allowed a quarterback more options on the field).

Story here: Smartfootball.com/gameplanning/what-impact-will-tom-moore-have-on-the-new-york-jets-offense

In that, you see that success is the end goal, and scheme isn’t.

Steve Smith, for instance, has legitimate gripes about some things. Maybe in past years he lined up at Split End/ X receiver too often. I’m sure the Dan Henning years meant Smith at X, a middling tight end or Ricky Proehl as the inside option (to QB’s right), and Muhsin Muhammad or inadequate stand-in at the flanker/Z receiver. Smith had a lot of success at that. Last year, having had the ability to chart some plays for a company interested in such a thing, Smith did actually move around a lot, and obviously spent a lot more time in the slot than he had since becoming a starter in 2002 (If I remember right, even as a reserve in 2001, he got mostly outside plays), and he did move sides of the field a lot. Of course, in the article above, you read that Marvin Harrison sat at the X, Reggie Wayne at the Z, and that’s just how it was. That seemed to work out allright. It seemed to work that Smith’s best years were being stuck over there on the left side – it’s not as if he went to the Super Bowl running all over the field in motion, or won the Triple Crown in 2005 working from the slot.

It brings up, extended from that, whether the criticized offense from 2010 was held back from greater success because it lacked creativity. More to the point, was simplicity the problem?

Being conservative certainly hurt, as it likely did for much of John Fox’s tenure. But was simplicity part of it? It seems that conservative play would’ve been the right thing for a timid, unready rookie quarterback.

Clausen’s conservative nature didn’t help, either. He rarely displayed his deep arm last year (even Brian St. Pierre – remember him? – could, having thrown an 88 yard TD against the Ravens’ solid defense), and the one thing John Fox definitely wants is to lure you to sleep on offense and eventually take a deep shot (especially if you ever get to the opponents’ 35, or directly after a turnover). Clausen did more dumping off than most, and yet was still inaccurate on shorter passes, completing under 60% of them. Even Matt Moore completed over 80% short.

On the complex side, Jeff Davidson gets a bad rap. Certainly, he needed to go down with the ship, but play design wasn’t of the most timid; I often read things like “we need to line Dante Rosario up wide”, and can immediately remember that happening many times. I read all these exotic things that seemed improbable, and unlikely to work ideas that fans stated Davidson wouldn’t ever do – I remember specifically a 3rd and 12 from Carolina’s own 15, trailing on the road against Cleveland in a game they almost won. Clearly, John Fox draw territory. It was a 3 WR, shotgun formation, atypical of draw formations; it had max protect with two backs, again atypical of a Panther team that kept 2 TE on the field more than almost anyone. Scissors draw to Rosario. Of course that seems like a bad place to give a guy his first NFL carry, but there’s strategy to it.

Of course, none of that excuses a lack of execution, or an owner’s decree that we needed more youth that meant having no veteran players outside Steve Smith in the passing game. Two rookie receivers and a rookie quarterback is, at the least, something that tends toward confusion rather than success. None of it excuses Davidson’s biggest failure over the tenure, the screen game he promised would open things up (and the easiest misdirection pass to execute if you drill it right). The Pats ran it flawlessly, and this was that sytem. We were given the idea that there were tons of ways to run it, with various players; already it feels like we’re a better screen team than we were over those four years.

In the end, you have to tailor to what works. It’s good to see that there’s apparently some one-read stuff in Cam Newton’s future – hopefully not too much – and that some Wildcat will be out there. I’ve got mixed feelings about the option, but as long as it doesn’t cost us points in the redzone (the assumed place you’d throw a read option in), it fits what we can do. if that means that Sean McDermott has to be oversighted on exotic blitzes, do it (I’ll say our LBs are experienced enough to handle it, though); if you’re running with a young QB you don’t have to pull out all 900 pages of playbook.

So, maybe the lockout benefits a complex team afterall – the necessity of short time creating a more compact, more simple philosophy. For this year, anyway.

Dorsey joins Panthers Amid Controversy?

2011-08-16T20:19:00.000-07:00

Ken Dorsey, who worked with Cam Newton at Chris Weinke's IMG Academy, is now an Advance Scout with Carolina.

Profootballtalk.com, as it often does with Carolina, attempted to drum up controversy, suggesting that Dorsey had directly worked with Newton as a Carolina employee in waiting. There seems to be no backing behind the rumor.

Nonetheless, Dorsey, the former Miami Hurricanes quarterback, joins Carolina at a very interesting time. As one of the winningest college quarterbacks of all time, Dorsey played under current Panthers offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski; that franchise - I mean, program - has come under heavy fire recently suggesting that a booster has given thousands upon thousands to UM players, which apparently could include Panther Jon Beason and possibly new Panther/Beason's 7th floor crew mate Greg Olsen.

This is essentially a non-story for Carolina - despite its heavy UM influence this year - in that nothing negative could come from the players or coaches here. That franchise seems somewhat screwed, but for Carolina's own benefit, it seems to have gotten some of that Miami swagger. Hopefully it comes without too much of the controversy.

As for Dorsey, he won't be working with Newton (at least, not now) - he's an advance scout, a pair of eyes on the next opponent. He'll work, with former Redskins TE Don Warren, under pro scouting director Mark Koncz. The pair both have a long history with the Coryell offense, with Warren winning three rings under that offense. Neither are coaches, neither will work with players. It's an interesting link, however, and it's rare that the Panthers talk much about their scouts.

Dorsey, of course, could be groomed to coach, and the IMG experience couldn't have hurt. Dorsey was also interested in high school coaching before being hired by Carolina, and had at one point taken on a job as a high school's offensive coordinator. So, the want is possibly there.

As a less interesting sidenote, Dorsey was with Chudzinski as a Brown in 2007; he competed with new Panther Derek Anderson for a job that year, with the pair losing to Charlie Frye in week 1; Frye was traded that next week, and Anderson went on to a Pro Bowl year.

Grades, V/S New York

2011-08-15T16:50:00.000-07:00

Carolina came up with a ten point win against solid competition, opening at home in preseason against New York. Here's how I graded:

Quarterbacks – C+. Clausen made a terrible throw on the pick 6, which should bring this grade down further than it did. It was one mistake, and Carolina didn’t have any others that cost them. Clausen was efficient, though, and that’s a start. The downfield throw to LaFell was nice, and he was fairly accurate. Turned a probable negative – throwing to a doubled Greg Olsen in the endzone – into a positive thanks mostly to Olsen.

Lots of excitement over Newton. A tall guy standing firm in the pocket is nice, but he’s still so green. He’s still inaccurate and fairly inconsistent – he could’ve made a lot more noise if he had hit Armanti Edwards in the endzone while open. He finished 8 of 19 so it’s not as if he was efficient.

Anderson looked solid, as he should as a vet playing in the 4th quarter. That he threw a TD and did allright on 3rd down was nice – that the other two failed to come up with a third down conversion should be troubling.

Running backs – C. Early exit from Jonathan Stewart meant a lot of work for Mike Goodson, who fumbled twice. That’s a concern, and he didn’t get that involved in the passing game. Tyrell Sutton looked fine late, Deangelo Williams looked good but had one good run and a few bad ones (not his fault) and was involved on the INT (bad ball but he didn’t seem aware). Screen was great. Tony Fiammetta looked good receiving, I’ll have to look at his blocking again.

Tight Ends – A. Can’t ask for more. Greg Olsen is going to be a beast, Shockey looks very steady. Hartsock isn’t in his element yet, being the blocker, but now’s when you feel him out for routes anyway; where’s Gary Barnidge been? He’s gotten plenty of chances at this, but looks like he’s finally getting everything he needs. Did as he had in camp – decent hands, routes; a bit of elusiveness from a guy who looked stiff. He has to work on his blocking, where I didn’t see positives or negatives, but his special teams work is suddenly fantastic.

Wide Receivers – B-. Brandon LaFell separated from Legedu Naanee a bit. 31 yard reception to open the game was nice, had another catch brought back because he stepped out of bounds for no reason. The problem is, one good reception apparently gets you a start? That’s not enough productivity. Naanee had one shorter pass, and that’s where he seems to excel. Armanti Edwards did well enough getting open; David Clowney failed to do enough to convince, as of yet, that he earned a job. Seems like Charly Martin played more, and sooner, than Wallace Wright, somewhat dooming Wright (an excellent special teamer who showed promise as a WR last year). Did Martin do enough to earn a spot? Hard to say. Especially if not starting, Naanee fills that vet WR/ST role. Kealoha Pilares made a great play on the screen ball – now let’s see some plays made on other balls.

Offensive Line - C. OK push in run game. Jordan Gross gave up more pressure than necessary – you shouldn’t stand out compared to Garry Williams – interior looked allright. Duke Robinson struggled, and at times seemed to struggle for breath – time to take your career seriously, Duke. CJ Davis looked like a solid backup C. I’m interested to go back and see how Mackenzy Bernadeau and Williams did individually, but I’d still feel better with a vet backup somewhere. Geoff Schwartz and Jeff Otah are fairly key to success at this point.

Offense Overall - B. Third downs hopefully weren't prepared, because they were awful until Anderson came in. That's concerning. Running game made it tougher, and Carolina did face a lot of third and longs. I don't anticipate that being as big a deal during the season.

Defense

Ends – C. Underwhelming pass rush so far. Kept good contain, and didn’t make mistakes, and they were down two of their more talented players (Charles Johnson, Greg Hardy). Eric Norwood was at left end, Everette Brown at right end; Norwood was singled out as being more physical, but it didn’t seem to be to his advantage yet. Was somewhat hoping to have heard that the offseason meant a more bulky Brown, which is more commentary than game analysis, but I doubt we’ll ever hear that. Ugo Chinasa was an allright backup that might make the PS because of his size.

Tackles – B+. Giants didn’t put up much on the ground. Starting pair Sione Fua and Corvey Irvin made plays on what may have been offensive miscues, so they’re not an indication of dominant performances, but when spot checked, both get off the ball very fast and into their linemen. Both did shed well on run plays, and Fua does show good short-range movement. He might not chase down the line like Julius Peppers, but he shows that he could still impact moving in the middle. Terrell McClain did well as a backup, another young DT that has a good first step. He can get into his OL a little lower, but if he gets there, he's probably dangerous. He can drive a guy backward when it happens.

Linebackers – B+. James Anderson stood out more in the pass than run, but Omar Gaither and Dan Connor didn’t leave much to clean up. That pair shows a starting level ability to stop the run. Gaither outside, otherwise, seems behind the top four, though I didn’t necessarily note anything that cost the team. Jordan Senn, so far, looks to have wrapped up a spot if he can keep it up – he’s a great ST player, and he showed up well weakside. Thomas Williams was active, though he seems to have become a preseason all-star for successfully coming on a blitz. He might be a practice squadder, if needed. Didn’t see too much of Lawrence Wilson yet, given his nose for the ball; hopefully he picks things up, because he should make the roster. I love our starting linebackers, but having spent on them as I wanted them to, it’s also apparent that they could’ve easily developed at least one guy to start.

Corners – C+. Some plays were made, but the top end players didn’t impress as you might hope. RJ Stanford and Kendric Burney made plays on balls as backups, but I’m going to have to go back and look for more positives from CJ Wilson to stay as a veteran (i.e., cost), and Robert McClain got picked on a bit. Could’ve been worse with top two guys out.

Safeties – A-. We have five good safeties. Charles Godfrey was fine, but Sherrod Martin stood out. Jordan Pugh made some plays, and veteran backups Kevin Payne and Sean Considine were active. All five could make it, even though there’s no reason to keep more than 4; it’s a lot to hang on Martin, but he might be our best cover guy, and he’s as good a nickel as we might have.

Defense overall – B+. Third down was fantastic. Run defense was good. Pass rush wasn’t, and blitzing will have to be as good as advertised.

Special Teams – A-. Good coverage, especially by new standout Gary Barnidge. Blocking on KR can still be better.

Starting Opening Day, Toda

2011-08-07T14:51:00.000-07:00

If I had to guess on the Panthers' starting lineup today, based on everything up to fanfest:

QB: Clausen - he's led the group out every time so far. I know they have no determination on this yet, but he's got more experience. Even with this being the case, I would anticipate Newton will play select portions of every game. Anderson and Pike are in a separate group.

RB: Williams - there's no doubt. I also imagine that he'll only continue to get more features with the new contract.

WR: Smith, Naanee - games will play this one out. I think Naanee's experience and size will matter. Will he stay a starter? Probably not - his production longterm hasn't been great (less than LaFell or Gettis).

TE: Shockey, Olsen. This pair has worked together a good bit, so I imagine they'll start games together in lieu of FB Tony Fiammetta. Look for Hartsock and Barnidge to work together, awkward since they're probably fighting for one roster spot.

OL: Gross-Wharton-Kalil-Schwartz-Otah.
No other options if everything goes well, but the focus would be on the RG if so. Schwartz has been the best, most consistent player outside of the top 4, but could see Mackenzy Bernadeau starting instead. Watch their pass blocking to see who's better.

LDE: Johnson.

NT: Fua. Unless someone else is picked up in the meantime, I'd suggest Fua is the starter and Andre Neblett is his backup.

UT: Irvin. It's a nice surprise that Corvey Irvin is playing well. Can he hold off Terrell McClain?

RDE: Everette Brown. He's more ideal for this D, but Greg Hardy didn't help himself with the injury either.

LBs: Anderson, Beason, Davis. Assuming nothing bad, there's no other options to decide excepting whether to keep a 7th LB (Gaither, Connor, and Lawrence Wilson should have an exceptional preseason, they're all players; none of them could overtake this trio however).

CB: Gamble, Munnerlyn. Concern isn't this pair, it's everything behind them, excepting a good vet pickup.

FS: Godfrey, Martin. Martin impressed the team enough that Ron Rivera said that Sherrod Martin might move to CB for nickel. It makes sense - but maybe Jordan Pugh can play well enough to move Martin down permanently.

Fanfest: Naanee Makes Team

2011-08-07T07:48:00.000-07:00

Made it to fanfest, and I'll just run down observations in a list.

*Only thing I tweeted about: Naanee. Wearing 6, this was his first practice, but you'd never know it. While he doesn't look fast, he's very sudden in shorter space. He doesn't look 220 lbs, either, which is big for any WR. His combine numbers included a 4.41 40, and that's actually relevant to a WR.
He came in and did very well at redzone receiving - a nice jump considering he landed in town the day before. Assuming he hasn't forgotten how to play special teams, he's in. I don't know who's out - Pilares and Edwards were both good, LaFell and Gettis were both hurt. Clowney was solid outside when used and Wright had a couple nice catches. If I had to guess at this point, Wright and Clowney become casualties of numbers and Gettis is traded (if he can get over his hamstrings and show up on-field).

Naanee was the only thing that I truly learned of interest, but plenty of observations were confirmed.
*Clausen is efficient. Looks like his release point is higher. He's more accurate, you can tell that coach Shula has done some positive things there. He doesn't push the ball downfield much, which is a shame because he has a solid deep arm. He just doesn't pull the trigger.

*Newton has a big arm. Newsflash, right? Still has trouble with accuracy on some outs. One thing that was new? Screen. There was a good screen to Goodson where he was able to do more than just fade a little bit. I see that in our future, a fake bootleg that draws more defenders in, and then dumps to the screen. Most screen action by the quarterback keeps a backpedal, instead of flipping the hips and moving around.

*Pike and Anderson took no snaps in scrimmage type situations. Weird. I guess they start running out of numbers but why not give someone like Pete Hoener, who has coordinating experience, and Scott Turner as coaches to oversee a B-team offense? Get some other players reps on the other half of the field. I think guys like Tyrell Sutton or Darvin Adams, who would've looked good in a normal Fanfest, got almost no time at all. I think they were low on linemen, though, so may have been hard to put together two extra units.

*short on CBs, and no one distinguished themselves. With Chris Gamble still gaining strength after stomach issues, and Captain Munnerlyn having a calf issue, that left CJ Wilson and new pickup Chevis Jackson as the most experienced CBs out there. Neither were standing out, and the young corners were worse.

Gamble and Munnerlyn are probably enough to start, but any team out there will look to spread Carolina and get a subpar corner on the field. I guess Kelvin Hayden wants too much money, because otherwise he's the best physical corner out there.

WR Naanee signed

2011-08-04T17:39:00.000-07:00

Carolina, after having offered WRs Santana Moss and Malcolm Floyd low contracts, gave one to Chargers WR Legedu Naanee.

The 6'2, 220lb former Boise State receiver was a special teamer only in his first two years, and openly complained about the role. Getting more time the last two years, he caught 24 balls for 242 yards in 09, with 2 TD; he caught 23 for 371 yards with 1 TD last year.

He was also arrested for public intoxication, at the scene of a homicide, while in Indianapolis over the offseason.

That aside, Naanee is a top flight special teamer who has direct knowledge of our offense. He's a tall posession receiver who's been mildly productive.

So is Wallace Wright, and so is Charly Martin (exceptng the part about our offense).

While I don't want to marginalize the youth, and specifically Brandon LaFell, it seems as if the big WR/Special Teamer is a position on this roster. That trio - Naanee, Wright, Martin - looks to be fighting for one spot.

It's hard to say what will happen with the rest - Steve Smith is on, and you can imagine LaFell and David Gettis have an inside line. There's one from the trio above for a special teams role, which makes four; that leaves one slot guy (Armanti Edwards or Kealoha Pilares). Maybe both of the last two will fit, but with three of the top four guys being bigger players, it's likely Steve Smith ends up in the slot.

I'm glad that it was Naanee, and not a greater, more esteemed player. Naanee can earn a spot on the roster, or he can be let go. It's a one year deal, no harm no foul. If there's an injury, there's probably no competition, which leaves us with a bit of a comfort level.

Now, for a cornerback.

Carolina Doesn't Need Malcolm Floyd

2011-08-03T17:34:00.000-07:00

Recent rumors from Jason LaCanfora put Carolina in the hunt for WR
Michael Floyd.

A big, prototype Coryell receiver that just happens to come from the Chargers, obviously the same team that HC Ron Rivera and OC Rob Chudzinski left this offseason, Floyd does make sense here. Looking around, Pat Yasinskas says Carolina took a run at Santana Moss with a 3 year, $15 million contract that Moss had the Redskins match. If that's the case, I wonder why the team didn't make a stab at Derrick Mason, who
would've been a fairly cheap one year deal.

Until you look around and see what else we have.
Some are lower on David Gettis or Brandon LaFell than I am. I see their combined 1000 or so yards with terrible QB play, and see promise. I don't see Gettis as a one route guy at all - I don't see LaFell as a big stump with no hands. That's absurd. What I see is what I see in Floyd - a pair of big, tall receivers with a wide catching radius. In Gettis I also see the ability to get deep, a necessity in this offense. LaFell can even get deep when needed (see the amazing should've-been catch, bad officiating call from the end of the Cleveland game) and come down with a ball. Honestly, if you could get Gettis a little thicker, you'd have an almost ideal player once he has another year on him.

But, let's negate that. Let's say the 2nd and 3rd WR are less critical. I'd disagree - you have to have quality anywhere possible - but on the surface, I see the need to target Steve Smith with 10 balls. I see the need to get Deangelo Williams 15 total touches, and Jonathan Stewart and Mike Goodson should split around 20. Split Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey for another 10 at least. All those sound reasonable. And
that's 55 plays before you throw to any of four young receivers.

Floyd would be a steal at the $3 million a year being quoted. The staff knows him. It seems ideal, had we not burned four draft picks on wide receivers.

King/Newton - Quiet Fued

2011-08-01T18:29:00.000-07:00

Peter King may have been mad as he'll be all year, during his training
camp visit.

It was a good time to visit - in the wake of bigtime signings and the
CBA, of which owner Jerry Richardson had a major part, and early in the
camp process for an energetic young team. Before the pads come on, and
while the young skill players can still run around in shorts (what they
do best at this point). Before technique matters, before a guy larger
than you is bearing his weight on your shoulders.

But King's goal was a snippet from Cam Newton, by all means the ongoing
biggest story in camp. Newton is a lightning rod, and always will be.
He's had a very good offseason, by all means, working hard and saying
the right things, but as King found out, Newton isn't always talking.

John Ellis, of the212radio, was within arm's reach of Newton snubbing
King. King was livid - he's a name national reporter in a sea of
content, one of the few old-guard print guys to have fully grasped new
media to continue his place in the conversation. Newton, rumored to be
unhappy about a pre-draft exchange where he'd said the now-famous
"entertainer and icon" line, walked by without saying a word.

"I was walking with Charlie Dayton to the parking lot after practice, and here comes Peter King, pissing and moaning about Cam", Ellis said. "He told Charlie that he came down here to get an exclusive and now he was being blown off."

I'm not always a fan of King's, but reading his MMQB column today I
notice that it could've been a fine pulpit for him to decry an immature
Newton and cause waves for a guy who has had character issues in the
past. He declined to do so, and spoke highly of the team and camp
environment in general. He praised Greg Olsen, working with a Juggs
machine. He praised the way things were run there, and talked about the
aura a personality like Newton brings, and how long he signed
autographs. Nothing about the snub.

That's professionality, and hopefully Newton notices and learns, rather
than feeling like he got away with one. Now's the time to build a
relationship, clear the air on something that caused neither any harm,
rather than drag on a grudge.

Newton's actions aren't the type that I worried about pre-draft (or
post-draft). The last thing I honestly expected of him would be to pass
up media. Is it that big a deal? Honestly, no. But, being a #1
overall means being a face of the franchise. It means building good
will, not squandering it.

Carlos Rogers; Derek Anderson

2011-07-31T20:23:00.001-07:00

The rush of free agency is over, everyone's in camp now (it's been under a week, which is crazy).

The Panthers killed off most of their needs, and did so quickly, with their own guys. Afterward, the impact names from other teams drained off the board - and at prices that some wish had meant more restraint from the Panthers.

Now that they're into camp, they're seeing what's there, and what's not. Two of the most major holes look to be filled soon, possibly with familiar but caustic names to many.

Derek Anderson looks to be the QB of choice, with the team meeting with him Monday. Anderson is familiar with Carolina's concepts, having played under OC Rob Chudzinski in Cleveland for two years. So he knows the Coryell concepts, linking him with various coaches and players acquired this year.

The team has been speculated to have more interest in Marc Bulger, an older free agent who spent his entire career under Coryell guys (Martz in STL, Cameron in BAL), but Bulger apparently holds out hope for a starting job or a return to the Ravens. He poses a less volatile situation than Anderson, who has had run-ins with media and doesn't seem to have as much to teach young quarterbacks. Anderson also has a lower completion percentage over time.

The corner spot is the other urgent situation for the team - despite statements today by Ron Rivera that the team was looking harder at their own players, the persistent injury of CB Brandon Hogan has prompted them to look at veterans.

Carlos Rogers of the Redskins (6', 190) was a 9th overall pick from Auburn in 2005. He started 41 games, has 299 tackles, and 8 career interceptions.

While I certainly would've preferred Josh Wilson from the Ravens, who replaces Rogers, there was a time where people viewed the former 9th overall pick as a top flight corner. Wilson is gone, but I'd still prefer Kelly Jennings.

Right now, it looks like he simply plays things too safely, giving up a high percentage of targeted passes. Hopefully, they can get something worked out with Rogers or someone, as Captain Munnerlyn could start but at the very least needs a push; and this team can't afford to go without three solid corners.

Camp Starts: Brayton Out, Gaither In

2011-07-30T10:37:00.000-07:00

Omar Gaither, a former Eagles LB, has signed. The 6'2, 235 lb player adds the veteran presence depth Carolina wanted, after having signed its 3 starters. Dan Connor backs ILB, and rookie Lawrence Wilson backs weakside, so Gaither seems to make good sense as a SLB to start, but has moved around.

Here's what Profootballfocus had to say when calling him a bargain:

Omar Gaither, LB

The last time Omar Gaither got on the field for a significant amount of time he was making a big time impression before injury ended his 2009 season. His play in the first five games of that season was as good as any linebacker at the time. Sure, he isn’t the best dropping into coverage, but his work in 2009 (and 2008 before that) are the work of a man who needs to be on the field. Get the impression he could flourish in a number of defensive systems.

On the backside, the team cut DE Tyler Brayton, thrusting Everette Brown and Greg Hardy into the spot, and leaving the team a bit thinner (the undersized Eric Norwood is the 4th). But Brayton wasn't generating any rush (one of the lowest per snap in the NFL at end), and was up in age. Oddly, he was one of the two oldest remaining players after the 2010 purge (Kasay the other), and both are gone.

Also cut were Ed Johnson, DT; Hilee Taylor. I'm not actually sure how Johnson fit in this system - he never was much of a penetrator, and he was a bit of a stop gap. They could've seen how well he fit in this scheme, but with Edwards and two rookies as the top 3, theoretically the 4th guy would have to be young. Johnson was available last year so they can go to him as they need, but there will likely be other options too.

Taylor, a 7th round pick in 2008, did very little that anyone other than UNC fans ever noticed.

Midnight: Beason Paid, Olsen Details

2011-07-28T21:11:00.000-07:00

The trade for Greg Olsen looked to have been in progress when it was broken by the Tribune; there were rumors that three different players could've been involved along with a draft pick. Those players were disparate and arrayed; Dan Connor (the most valuable), Armanti Edwards (the most bizarre), and Duke Robinson (the least likely to make the team, and the most fat).

It turned out he came over for a 3rd round pick. Would've been nice to get them down to a 4, but it's still a first round talent. Later this evening, he signed a 4 year, $24 million deal with $10 million up front.

Then, immediately after, they wrapped on a 5 year, $50 million deal for Jon Beason, of which he proclaimed himself to be the biggest MLB deal in the sport. The team had intended on an extension for years, first giving way to the Jordan Gross/Chris Gamble extensions and Julius Peppers fiasco, and then the CBA issues. So certainly, this was a needed contract.

Beason had one year left on his contract. He was an absolute bargain at 5 years, $6 million over the life of the contract; he had held out until signing, and then immediately stepped in and started leading the team (I remember very specifically that the late-reporting Beason was "able" to play through the fourth quarter in preseason games, to get up to speed) between then and now. And it looks like that will continue from here, for at least five more years.

Crazy, a day where a $10 mil per year extension to a franchise player doesn't fit on its own story.

TE Greg Olsen, Traded From Bears To Panthers

2011-07-28T15:54:00.000-07:00

Brad Biggs/Chicago Tribune broke the story that Carolina has traded for the former Miami Hurricane and Chicago Bears star.

The 6'5, 255 lb Olsen was a 1st round pick from Miami the same year Carolina drafted Jon Beason in the same round, from the same school. Both players were rumored to come to Carolina at the 14th pick, where Carolina was slated to pick. The team was reported to be in love with both players, and after a trade down (that netted Carolina Beason and fellow Pro Bowler Ryan Kalil, and the Jets CB Darelle Revis), they grabbed Beason at 25. Olsen, who had apparently grown up knowing John Fox, went 31st.

Now, Carolina has them both. Olsen, who caught 194 balls for 1981 yards and 20 TD in four years, had a high of 60 receptions, 612 yards, and 8 TD in 2009. He played for OC Rob Chudzinski in 2003 (Chudzinski, a TE, was a TEs coach there before he was Miami's OC that year), so he was certainly recruited by him as well. In Miami, and through his career in Chicago, Olsen has played in the Coryell offense, which has almost universally bred the greatest tight ends (though last year's Martz version pulled Olsen's productivity down, as it's never been very TE - centric).

So, he'll certainly have familiarity with what Carolina wants to do on offense, and will have Jeremy Shockey on board to aid in making things happen in the downfield routes and option routes/dumpoffs involved in working the middle of the field.

Olsen's expected to sign a new contract, and no details are available excepting that it involves a player (but not Steve Smith) and a draft pick (likely conditional, in 2012).

Evening Roundup: Wow

2011-07-27T19:45:00.000-07:00

Today was intense. Of course I wrote articles from work, and before I could get home to paste them there were so many changes that most of them are invalid.

So they came in this morning having pulled the best DE in free agency, their own Charles Johnson, the night before. They set their sights on Deangelo Williams next, and you could assume that could be the whole day. It certainly wasn't.

While waiting on Williams, they pulled down probable starting NT Ron Williams. He's a roleplayer, a run stopper. But he's also a vet presence on the line.

They brought in TE Ben Hartsock. At first glance, Hartsock isn't the solution at TE, IMO. He's not a player that fits that second role. Hopefully they're not done, but he's probably a one year deal.

The shocker of the day was K Olindo Mare. It was always a fear that the Panthers would hold onto John Kasay, now expected to be unceremoniously cut, too long. And they made the right move in moving on, hopefully. Mare's age and shortened range don't bother me, and it makes sense that they went from one of the league's worst at kickoffs to one of the best. But it seems like they paid far too much for a somewhat limited kicker - 4 years, $12 milion. Was Mare so in demand? I doubt it. You give him a two year deal at most. I'm sure he is cuttable two years in, but there was no reason to go another two years anyway.

Then, after lunch, they locked in Williams. 5 years, $42 million. $21 milion guaranteed, half of the contract. It's a lot of money, and I would've been fine with him walking, but if he can stay healthy, he should continue to be very powerful, and he should benefit from the new zone power running as much as anyone (along with more catches).

Then, word came that they'd locked in both OLBs, James Anderson and Thomas Davis, to 5 year deals (Anderson's is $20 million - reasonable - and Davis' is assumed to be similar). Not bad. It may leave Dan Connor out in the cold - he's deserving of a spot - but a year backing up this trio is followed by free agency for him.

So now what? They have their LBs; they have their DTs, possibly; they definitely need a CB of some sort, and there are still top CBs and DTs still out there. Conventional wisdom suggests a vet QB, and I'd still prefer to bring back Dante Rosario or another FA than have Hartsock/Barnidge be our backup TEs.

But, it's been 48 hours and they've spent well over $140 million in future money, so have patience.

Williams Signs

2011-07-27T19:30:00.000-07:00

Deangelo Williams signed today, with Carolina outbidding Denver (as expected), and New York (which was a surprise, late addition). The deal is worth $43 million over 5 years. Williams was set to be a free agent.

The deal is expensive – over $8 million per year, half of it already guaranteed – but it’s cheaper than the franchise amount for RBs. I honestly worried, once three teams or more were interested, this was going to hit closer to $10 million. That franchise tender amount - $9.86 million – included some anomalies – Reggie Bush and Marion Barber, for instance, aren’t likely to play on those numbers. But, compared to the average of the top 5 salaries currently, it’s not a hefty contract if Williams can continue to be productive.

He’s battled injuries the last two years, which is a bit concerning. He’d be 33 at the end of the deal, which seems unlikely to be completed healthily. In the meantime, he’s still our best back, and it gives a heavy 1-2-3-4 punch for another two years. Jonathan Stewart, Mike Goodson, and Tyrell Sutton are free agents after 2012.

I anticipate the same hard-sell message to come across with Williams that they used on Charles Johnson – staff visit in person with an offer, and a pitch as to how he’ll be used. To this point, haven’t read anything about it, but it’s a nice touch from a class organization.

DT Ron Edwards, TE Ben Hartsock Signed

2011-07-27T12:48:00.000-07:00

arolina signed Ron Edwards, a nose tackle from Kansas City, to a modest 3 year, $8.25 million contract today.

Edwards, 32, is a 6’4, 320 lb tackle going into his 11th year. He was a 3rd round pick in 2001 with Buffalo, playing in Gregg Williams’ pressure scheme. After 5 years with Buffalo, Edwards moved over to Kansas City, most recently fitting into their 3-4 but probably working out a bit better in the one gap scheme Carolina will put forth. Edwards adds a size and experience completely absent the last two years (excepting Hollis Thomas, who situationally bailed Carolina out a good bit), and continues to help fit what Ron Rivera’s said about requiring a better front to help linebackers flow downhill.

Edwards is a departure from past years as well – he is Carolina’s eldest defender at this point – and coming with that experience is a leadership needed (and missed) in the trenches. It’s hard to say whether Tyler Brayton – the other over-30 player in the front seven – will still be with the team at DE.

It’ll be interesting to see what else we do at DT, whether we bring back any other players; as of now, we have Edwards, rookies Fua and McClain, former 3rd round pick Corvey Irvin, undrafted FA from 2010 Andre Neblett, and Nick Hayden. If I were to guess to a depth chart and you were to simplify it to nose or under tackle, here’s what I’d figure:

NT: Edwards, Fua, Neblett

UT: McClain, Hayden, Irvin

Not all of those would make the team. There’s honestly room for another player (I don’t think the team has that much interest in Neblett or Irvin) since we’re light on rush players/3-technique type DTs, if they wanted ,which would push Hayden to inactive depth (should they keep 5 on roster instead of 4).

At first, to be honest, I read that the Panthers had signed Ray Edwards, the sought-after DE. I certainly wasn’t expecting that – I was expecting a player like Ron Edwards. That reaction aside, I wasn’t expecting an elite DT – I figured they’d put big money into one defender, possibly a DT or CB, and IMO preferably a CB (you can find roleplayers at DT if necessary, and I guess we have).

Carolina also signed TE Ben Hartsock, who's been on 5 teams in 8 years. He's an allright blocker, but rarely gets any time receiving. I'm underwhelmed by this signing, and kinda hope we keep working at TE.

Charles Johnson Signs

2011-07-26T16:34:00.000-07:00

It's not official (and he can't "report" until next thursday, for some odd reason/rule), but Charles Johnson is in, and he confirms it. 6 years, $70+ million - it's been reported as 70, 72, 76 million in various articles. $30 million guaranteed seems to be the constant statement, and a hefty one.

Carolina made the heaviest push, not only offering more, but also bringing GM Marty Hurney (and some outlets suggested Rivera and/or position coaches) to Miami, where Johnson was stationed.**

Johnson himself said that family pushed the Georgia native (and Bulldog alum) to sign with Atlanta, and apparently Denver made a hard push. Carolina made it happen, however. Johnson suggests that deal was the best; he probably could've sounded more loyal about it on twitter, but he stays, and that's what's important; he also mentioned being interested in still facing Atlanta twice after what he feels was a snub in what they offered.

**Hurney also visited potential head coaches in the offseason by going to them instead of bringing them in. I wonder what that's about, but it seems to be paying dividends.

Davis; Players Speak; UDFAs

2011-07-25T19:25:00.000-07:00

Thomas Davis is apparently not an unrestricted free agent since he sat all year on the PUP list. For this, I'm happy - if you lock him down long term, you have time. Same with Ryan Kalil, and Jon Beason. Wait until the madness ends and sign these guys then.

Of course, if they want, they can have Davis play at last year's $3.3 million one year deal, and do it all again next year. Fiscally that might be the smart thing to do.

Apparently Deangelo Williams wants to stay, per his blog.

Charles Johnson said the same on First Take.

Hopefully they're right (and they're gentle on the coffers, within reason). James Anderson and Thomas Davis said same within the week.

apparently undrafted FAs can agree to terms tonight, and some have here in Carolina. CB Kendric Burney, OT Byron Bell, ILB Nick Bellore, KO specialist Adi Kunali and former Cam Newton teammates Darvin Adams (WR), Ryan Pugh (C). I'm sure more will come tomorrow, along with at least half of our draftees signed.

Free Agent Mess

2011-07-25T17:23:00.001-07:00

CBA is done - great. It's well overdue.

So now what? This week is going to be ridiculous. Check out this schedule:
*Doors open tomorrow
*Rookies and UDFAs can be signed starting at 10am, along with trades.
*apparently, a no-tampering change to free agency gives original teams no time prior to other teams contacting them. All teams can start signing friday, but not before; still, they can talk to anyone.

It'll be a mess. Some teams are already talking to players about cutting them. I'm sure plenty of teams are already talking to free agents.

Chances are, what that will mean for Carolina is overspending on what they want. So, if that's the case, put what you can into Charles Johnson, but not Deangelo Williams or James Anderson. No offense to the other two, but you have the ability to find players at LB to compliment what you already have.

I gotta admit, I had a nice article written on who I'd like to see us go get as undrafted FA rookies (Martin Parker, Schuyler Oordt, Kristofer O'Dowd, Deandre McDaniel), and how we didn't need to neglect our undrafted rookie pool. But, now, I say forget it - go after your own guys, and send a couple coaches after some other guys (Brandon Mebane would be nice).

Some players will inevitably be in the building Tuesday. Good. Regardless of what Carolina wants to do, or what they can pull off, it'll be nice just to have a team.

Rivera's Plan: So Far, So Good

2011-07-18T20:56:00.000-07:00

A big selling point for Ron Rivera, so the Panthers thought, was his lockout-ready 2011 plan.

It was smart, being the only coach who had contingency plans. Their owner, of course, did too - Jerry Richardson has been cap-mindful for three years, and most of his plans up to now were preparing for lockout.

So, with a lockout in place, Carolina waited. When it had its chance, it distributed playbooks, and the team did its best from there. With that said, it looks like it's time to enact Part Two.

A minicamp will apparently take place starting Friday, says a team claiming to quote Jeremy Shockey. This is on the assumption that there's an agreement this week, and then the team will start meeting ASAP.

A minicamp gives players the ability to start learning from the coaching staff instead of each other, and start getting an idea for what the team wants. It's hard to say what the long term plans are, but the regular season opener September 11 looks to be intact, along with all preseason games.

Last year, training camp opened July 28th, so a camp that runs July 22-25 would offer the ability to meet locally, break in time to give a few days off, and then start camp around the first of the month, first game roughly two weeks after.

What's not yet clear - who will participate? It will be a few days before free agency, and draft picks might not be the first priority to sign.

The intent seems to be that the first wave, 72 hours worth of the start of the league year, will feature the ability to re-sign free agents, and sign undrafted FAs. All this would seem to be after this first minicamp. So would draftees, and FAs, show up? or even be invited?

It's hard to say, but there's real football planned, so I'll take it.

Cap Room: Kalil

2011-07-17T21:22:00.000-07:00

Would it make more sense to leave Ryan Kalil at his franchise number?

Carolina has more cap space than any team, and now Cam Newton might take up less. A chunk will go into re-signing players, rookies, and new free agents, but maybe the team doesn't want to tie too much of it up into 2011 contracts that will escalate it by 2013-14, when the team would hope to be hitting stride.

So, putting a Kalil contract off a year might work.

For one, you don't have time to negotiate, since they have 72 hours to make things happen before rushing into free agency and camp.

More imporantly, an $11 million cap figure might be more beneficial than a new deal assuming you expect one. A reboot in 2012 for a new Kalil contract gives the team value then, when they know what that cap will look like.

Large one year deals might be a new thing, but could be a new norm if things go with the cap as I assume. Why not offer 2-3 contracts to pending free agents that pay them like franchise players? The long term risk is not there, the short term is shock value and not really weight bearing.

Random Thoughts Into Free Agency

2011-07-17T19:30:00.000-07:00

It goes without saying, but it'll be said plenty more: Pre-free-agency will be about Charles Johnson. Gotta have him.

I'm OK with James Anderson or Thomas Davis (wow, how much has the lockout helped this guy?), but if we can't get both, I'm OK with Dan Connor at SLB.

Jeff King won't return. He just won't. Now, Dante Rosario may, but that may end up what the market will bear otherwise. Rosario fits, with the versatility of the offense and targets to secondary players. He was a top 3rd down guy for us.

Ron Rivera's a hard nosed and fair coach, but he hasn't shown much loyalty. He didn't pickup a bunch of Eagles when he moved to the Bears; he didn't pickup Bears for SD. I don't think that's against anyone he's coached, just that he likes making new players. He certainly did it with SD, where his best team was after Shawne Merriman and Antonio Cromartie were gone.

To that end, while I don't mind at all that Sherrod Martin or Jordan Pugh might move to corner in that situation, I wouldn't stay up waiting for Eric Weddle to come here.

I like the idea of Josh Wilson at CB. Link shows why. Guy can cover, but is still learning it.

Captain Munnerlyn, on that same vein, could play in this defense. He and Wilson would make for a lack of height, though. If we can get a starting CB, that seems to be worthwhile, and there are a few. But if not, Munnerlyn fighting for a job is just fine by me, as he finally started to play the ball last year.

I expect Steve Smith to stay. I don't expect a starting level OL or WR signed, which probably means at least one will happen.

I have no reason to expect Deangelo Williams to be here.

72 Hours

2011-07-16T08:15:00.000-07:00

It looks like a new CBA is finally at hand soon, after three years of worry over it. Along with that comes free agency - there will be no right of first refusal, and teams will only have 72 hours of pre-negotiation with their own players before they're free agents.

For Carolina and its 26 free agents, you can see how that will be difficult. If you were to not sleep (and under the idea that you were pushing it all for that 72 hours, not the open of FA, which I find unlikely), that's still under 3 hours time per free agent.

If you remove Kalil (franchised), Richard Marshall (not likely to return), and Craig Null (not at all interesting), you get 3.1 hours per free agent.

If they're smart, they have realistic offers for minor free agents - they have bigger contracts for starting level players. They have Marty Hurney and Ron Rivera make calls and the followup is with lower level guys (Mark Koncz, pro personnel; Rob Rodgers, cap; assistant coaches), and leave the bigger FAs face to face with president Danny Morrison and owner Jerry Richardson while using a centralized Hurney to negotiate.

Those pre-made contracts as offers create a starting point, and you can go from there. But it would allow the team maximum contact with those players in the 3 day window, and allow a team rep to followup with 2-3 players per rep to make sure there's personal contact.

The Panthers must lock down Charles Johnson, and if reasonable Deangelo Williams and James Anderson would be great, too. But losing out on other players - Thomas Davis, for instance - is not something that needs to happen either.

With a 72 hour window, I have a hard time seeing Steve Smith involved in trades right now.

DT options

2011-07-15T18:33:00.000-07:00

Carolina won't stand pat with just the two 3rd round picks at DT, and the remainder (outside possibly Andre Neblett) won't really matter. Here are some interesting names at DT in free agency:

*Brandon Mebane, Seahawks - loved him coming out of Cal, and hasn't disappointed. He's stout against the run, but did have one great year pass rushing (5.5 sacks, 2 ff) on a bad team in 2008.

*Aubrayo Franklin, 49ers - strictly a NT, but a great one. Comes from a 3-4 background.

*Barry Cofield, Giants - can play either 4-3 spot, had 10 QB hits last year (second to only Shaun Rogers at DT), had a very high 54 tackles. He's played under Steve Spagnuolo in what's essentially the Jim Johnson system.

*Stephen Bowen, Cowboys - 6'5, 308 lb 3-4 end who stepped up in Marcus Spears' absence. He had 3 sacks as a backup in 2009, only 1.5 as a 9 game starter in 2010 but came to play as a major run stopper. Scheme isn't that far removed from ours. NC native.

Replacing Charles Johnson

2011-07-15T18:26:00.001-07:00

Let's just call this Plan Z - and agree that Charles Johnson was our best player last year (I'll hear alternate arguments). Plans A-Y should all be focused on ways to re-sign Johnson, to not leave a huge gaping hole in the already airy Panthers DL.

But, this article is the dark, dark place in which Charles Johnson is no longer a Panther, and Carolina's attempting to pick up the pieces. Hopefully, a theoretical article is the only place this would happen.

So, now what? You have plenty of money to throw around you didn't expect to have, and you have to come up with rush. Let's start fresh and throw Tyler Brayton to the wolves, too.

*Ray Edwards - Next best option, Edwards is a fine player on a great line, but it's hard to say how much of it's help from the Williamses at DT.

*Raheem Brock, Seahawks - Brock slimmed down a bit form his Colts days, and no longer has to rush inside. Oddly, his bulk and versatility might work a bit better if the team did any 3-4, but Brock was just a better player as a thinner end (9 sacks versus an annual 4 sack average), and would work out just fine at left end. He has ties to DC turned DBs coach Ron Meeks.

*Jason Babin, Titans - a former 1st round bust, Babin somehow had 12.5 sacks last year. Buyer beware, but Babin could fit at end and drop into coverage if you believe he can pull off a repeat performance after 18 sacks in the seven seasons prior. Did play for Sean McDermott in 2009.

*Cullen Jenkins - Kris' brother, so not likely, but Jenkins can still play DE or DT, which makes him an ideal left end in a 4-3 base and can play outside, obviously 3-4, or at DT. Likely the most expensive option, also the most fun.

*Shaun Ellis, Jets - has plenty of age, but better at being Tyler Brayton than Brayton is. He's got leadership ability as well. He just can't offer you another five years.

Keeping Anderson?

2011-07-15T17:58:00.001-07:00

Plenty of Carolina picks have come out saying that the team wants to keep them, but I haven't heard from James Anderson.

Jon Beason isn’t Dan Morgan by any stretch, and Anderson doesn’t have the productive longterm history that Will Witherspoon did in four years here. But the Panthers do face that type decision again. In this case, there seems no conceivable way the Panthers don’t extend Beason. Anderson, however, seems likely to be allowed to walk.

I’ve long dismissed the idea of James Anderson staying. With a year as good as he had, he’d get paid. But I don’t want to dismiss things too quickly. Thomas Davis is a wildcard, giving the team a second near-elite level player to continue to work with Beason, if you’re assuming he’s healthy. You can’t always assume that, so you run the risk of swinging wide in both situations – don’t pay Anderson, and you could end up with Beason, rookie Lawrence Wilson, and hefty amounts of nothing else. Pay him and you have three highly paid linebackers and not enough elsewhere.

Anderson did almost nothing in his first four years – wasn’t good enough in coverage to steal any time, and was unable to do much with his time when he did play (he was a starter with the preseason squad in 2008 or 09, I believe, and looked OK there, then failed to make impact on the starting spot on the other side when available. Still, limited time in 2009 made Anderson a player that deserved more time, and he did his best with it (the struggle between John Fox and owner Jerry Richardson over playing young players helped cause 2010’s disaster and Fox’s downfall). Despite being small for strongside linebacker, Anderson made plays last year. He did it against the run and pass alike – making numerous stops behind the line of scrimmage, making 2nd on the Panthers’ sack list last year with 3.5 and having 19 total pressures on 127 attempts (which means Anderson probably blitzed around 1 out of every 6 base plays).

To give some background on that, Beason (mostly playing OLB, I’d imagine, for these blitzes) had 90 blitzes and had 6 total pressures. Beason’s numbers are low – it’s his least effective ability – but Anderson’s numbers are high, especially for a 4-3 OLB. It’s not as if able blitzing will somehow be wasted with Ron Rivera.

At any rate, Anderson made plays. He led the team in tackles as well, less likely for a SLB in this offense, with 130 tackles. There were plenty of mis-steps, however, and while this is where the hard info stops, it did seem like there were a lot of missed tackles, a lot of quick knifes through blocking that missed the runner.

The end result is money – Anderson can probably earn a fairly decent salary. Is he a special player? No, so if another team (St. Louis, as a logical suggestion) wants him more you have to let him go. Is he your third best LB still? Has he passed the playmaking Davis while hurt? Do you keep him to make sure you have at least one starting WLB (assuming Anderson is, in fact, a good fit)?

I’ll take him if he’s here. I’ll wince if it’s for too much money. If he walks and we find a random, cheap but experienced linebacker, we’re probably not in bad shape.

So what if we don't keep him?

Right or wrong, let's say Anderson is gone. Now what?

You need a player that can do it all - rush, hit the TE, cover, take on blockers, and think on his feet. Here are some options.

*Dan Connor - existing backup MLB did have 15 tackles from SLB in 2009, and played outrageously well inside (see also: http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2010/11/04/stories-of-the-season-dan-connor/). He has the bulk to chuck the TE. He doesn't get enough credit for athleticism, with his 4.60 40. I just don't know if he can rush - he did have 5 and 6 sacks respectively, in his final two years, but one of those two was at MLB.

*Matt Roth, Browns - big 3-4 OLB who regularly plays on the line of scrimmage, is used to having contain and doing linebacker duties despite rush abilities. He's not elite, but he does everything well and gives you scheme flexibility.

*Antwan Barnes, Chargers - the 5th year, 6'1, 250 lb journeyman happened to have his best year last year, a one year stop with the defense that Ron Rivera made best in the land. He's a rush guy, and played mostly in nickel, but he can get at the passer.

*Manny Lawson, 49ers - local guy, 3-4 OLB. Maybe he hasn't turned out quite as well as you might hope, but raw talent is there.

Rookie Wage Scale

2011-07-13T19:16:00.000-07:00

Enough sources suggest that a new CBA is close, but the rookie scale is a sticking point still.

Both sides seem to want to limit the length of the contract, assumedly seeming to back into a 5 year deal that gives a 5th year option well in excess of the average value of the deal.

Obviously, this impacts the Panthers and Cam Newton greatly. Newton won't be getting a $12 million average deal - the groundwork is laid for a 4 year, $22 million deal. With a 5th year option, and assuming the 5th year does prorate part of a bonus (meaning more bonus, in an agent's eyes) that's probably still a $14 million bonus, and it comes with a $13 million 5th year option based on the Players' suggestion (the owners, I believe, suggested closer to 4), giving a 5 year deal of $31 million (or, owners, $26 million). Either way, it's a far cry from what Sam Bradford received, so it helps Carolina (and the league).

What I don't yet understand - and we'll miss out until these contracts mature - is how they can be extended, or if they can be. A successful Newton may or may not want to play out a 1 year $14 million deal when he could sign for more.

As an aside, it's funny that the 5th year of a deal - 2015 in this case - is what might be holding up 2011. More funny is that it benefits both sides - veteran players and owners/teams - to have high level rookie contracts

Kerry Collins: Gone

2011-07-10T19:28:00.000-07:00

At one point in the offseason, there was that feeling – Kerry Collins is available. Why not? Those wounds have healed, he’s a competent veteran. Of course, it was never to be, with Collins doing what he does best one final time by retiring this week.

That’s a hard assessment, but it can’t be denied that Collins’ history includes some effort failures. It was good to see him pick himself back up, and have success in various spots. He should be proud of his statistical accomplishments and longevity, long after the preseason 1997 hit by Bill Romanowski dealt a near-knockout blow to his career and our franchise.

I’m not the guy to defend Kerry Collins. He made his share of mistakes – partying instead of studying, making stupid and racist comments to teammates, and franchise quarterbacks don’t come to their coach and say they have no heart left. He earned his exit, even if it was a stupid move on Dom Capers’ part.

But, by 1998 it was time to talk new contract, the team had thrown a new offense on Collins, and there were heavy expectations because of defensive spending. All of that fell on Collins, right or wrong, and it smothered him. The WCO is a good offense, which could fit Collins’ abilities. Collins had around 1000 yards in four games, and the offense was starting to work better than it had in 97. The four losses weren’t on him. For him to react that way was no better than the way that Capers did, but he didn’t cut himself.

Collins, after forfeiting his franchise position with Carolina, bounced around. Quarterbacks with potential tend to do that, and sometimes they get by on reputation...Collins had certainly damaged his reputation enough by that point.

He had success in the 2000s, with a Super Bowl and some success there, but not enough to fend off a high pick – which became Eli Manning. It’s a tough situation, and better quarterbacks have been through it – Drew Brees was replaced once (actually, within the trade that gave the Giants the rights to Manning), Joe Montana couldn’t even outlast it way back when – but had Collins been a Panther in that same situation, or originally drafted by NY, the sentimentality of it, that franchise mystique, they probably don’t wheel and deal for Manning from the 4th spot (whether that’s a mistake or not is hard to say, but I’d still view it as true).

If you need any clarity on whether a modestly successful Collins could’ve stayed in Carolina through a 2003 season on his given career path of the time? Jake Delhomme survived an extra year after a worse collapse. If Collins could’ve made it through the 96 NFCC game, and taken them to another Super Bowl (he and the franchise both went, obviously, at different times), he has tenure. Outside a big contract, it’s tough to get tenure as a 6+ year quarterback otherwise.

He stopped in New Orleans for a bit before the Giants – great place for a guy with drinking issues – and followed that successful NY stint with Oakland (where you’d figure he and Randy Moss could put together a deep game), and then Tennessee – where he somehow found himself a backup, then had a bigtime 13-3 season and a Pro Bowl bid, and then of course was back on the bench the following year.

I’ll go further than the statement about not being replaced in the mid-2000s by a flashy name in the draft – if Collins had gone to two Super Bowls, with one team, or even just had his level of longevity with Carolina, he’d have a steadier footing for the Hall of Fame right now. He has a lost Super Bowl and 40,000 yards, and that’s it. A championship or two, or even just another appearance or two with one team, in this modern day of Free Agency, might’ve mattered, and being successful on one team probably means another Super Bowl or two (he made it deep into the playoffs three times, with one appearance, so it’s not really that huge a stretch honestly). It changes Collins from an aching athlete at middle age, to regional hero and marketable name. More money, sure, but most definitely a raised level of accomplishment.

So, to make this relevant to Carolina, take heed Cam Newton – you’re saying and doing the right things right now. This isn’t a one year job, and for most it is (just ask Jimmy Clausen). This takes your best, your all, every time. I can understand finding a lack of realistic want for a young franchise like Carolina – it’s hard to live or die a team without realistic tradition longterm – but at the most basic level, their success is your success. Even a level of success later, with someone else, is realistically making do, a lessened level of long term failure. Falling out of favor with your drafted team – the one that expects you to be their franchise, their face – means a lot more trouble than just a little extra work. It’s a lot harder road from here. There may be continued opportunity, but it’s a much harder road.

Newton - 90% of playbook installed?

2011-07-03T09:19:00.000-07:00

Cam Newton has supposedly done game-line run throughs with the playbook, per Chris Weinke. Link gets you to the story, a decent one by the Observer.

It's good to hear. It's not replacement for actual installment, with the coaches and with his teammates (it would probably have been smart to invite at least the young guys, LaFell, Edwards, Pilares, and Gettis, to work out, but maybe they were invited), but it's a start. At least, when it's installed, Newton has a base to learn from, which is more than a lot of young players will have.

At the very least, it means that Newton will be able to work with coaches on what they want to stress, not an entire education. Maybe more time will be spent on pre-snap reads, working from center, and installing plays that they intend specifically for Newton.

Though, it's hard to believe that Chudzinski's famed 900-page playbook doesn't have anything or everything needed. Again - about that - the Coryell offense isn't about memorizing 900 different plays. It's about the combination of plays, of terminology. If you understand the terminology, you know the offense and what everyone's doing in it.

The idea that others have access to the playbook is misleading - if it were such a huge secret, players would just be IR'd to be kept instead of let go.

It's also weird, knowing that the coaches had to read about this through the newspaper.
------

Weinke has, at the very least, taken his assignment as a backup quarterback to heart. He wore a headset more than a helmet, and passed up a chance in 2006 to move onto another team to try to start when he decided to stay. Having tutored Newton after the draft (what happened to George Whitfield, anyway? Not that I have complaints), Weinke is gaining a name as a football coach with the third-party IMG training facility. I'm glad to see Weinke landed on his feet, and if he chooses to step away from IMG, it'd be nice to have him as a coach. It's sentimental, but you like to see guys grow into coaches the way Sam Mills did, or Ron Rivera did in Chicago. If I had it to do in 2007, I'd have definitely tried to hire Pete Metzelaars, now the OL coach in Indy.

Keeping Johnson the priority

2011-06-22T19:10:00.000-07:00

Free agency seems somewhat inevitable at this point, and while the Panthers chose to tag Ryan Kalil as their franchise player, no situation is more urgent than keeping Charles Johnson at defensive end. Johnson's a rare commodity - a left end that can rush the passer without a compliment on the other side; a 280 lb player who can drop into coverage. An end that's exceptional at both run stopping and pass
rushing.

After losing Julius Peppers in free agency prior to 2010, the team's biggest question mark was pass rushing, specifically replacing Peppers. It turned out to be the least of the team's worries, with Johnson getting arguably more pressure than any other end in the NFL per ProFootballFocus.com; he had 81 QB disruptions, second only in preseason 2010, it looked like there were various players to step up. Tyler Brayton had 2 sacks in the first quarter of preseason play; Johnson, Greg Hardy, and Everette Brown all pitched in at least one two-sack game. Johnson, a part-time player who spent a lot of 2009 rushing from DT situationally, seemed the least likely to step into a dominant role, but owned it and earned it.

Johnson also provides flexibility. His 2009 stats do show that, despite playing at over 290, he was getting pressure while inside. Leaned out in 2010, he was able to create pressure outside as an edge rusher, or with inside moves (James Anderson blitzed strongside more than any other Panther player in any gap, necessitating Johnson to take inside moves at times). If you consider Ron Rivera's potential for running a hybrid 3-4 or 4-3 to go with the basic Jim Johnson 4-3 zone blitz, Johnson has the ability to create pressure outside at DE, move inside to a 3-4 type
alignment as a 5-technique 34 DE, or if necessary move inside to the 3-technique. The ability to rush the outside (the body lean - the quick step - the radial movement when contacting the OT) is a huge crutch to most 3-4 left ends if the OLB doesn't crash (you have to keep contain, and get upfield, so your moves are limited).

So Johnson, assuming he can take care of his production as he has in the past, is essentially an ideal player for the needs of the Ron Rivera defense. Outside rush? Check. Inside? Had it for years. Drops? Able, at the least (Johnson dropped into coverage occasionally with both Mike Trgovac and Ron Meeks). Run stopping? Absolutely, elite.

A lack of talent outside Johnson on the DL is another concern. While the defense has some cornerstones (Jon Beason; Thomas Davis if healthy; you could make an argument for Chris Gamble or Charles Godfrey on a good day), the defensive line is, at best, young without any veterans at DT; and with Tyler Brayton and Johnson as the veterans, Brayton seems to be a situational player only. Everyone else is young, and suddenly instead of platooning/competing Greg Hardy and Everette Brown, you're stretching
both of them into potential starting roles.

Brayton was sackless last year in 332 attempts, with 19 disruptions last year and 93 over 3 years/1200+ rush attempts (9.5 sacks, but none last year). Brayton does rush inside, and does lose some of the obvious rush snaps to others; still, he seems to have become an over-30 player that seems to have been missed in the purge last year. He may not have much to give anymore. Losing Johnson, and cutting Brayton, leaves two young ends without much past production.

No Assistant Head Coach

2011-06-15T18:13:00.000-07:00

I've run on about coaching for years now - since starting this blog, every coaching position has changed at least once, and most twice - and there's not a ton to say, but it struck me recently that there's no Assistant Head Coach.

There's been one for at least every year since 1999. I can't remember Dom having one, and team documents back that up. After, you had John Marshall, who was DC and AHC; you had Richard Williamson as another, in 2000-01 in an attempt to mentor the immature Bill Musgrave (and eventually replace him - FYI, I never felt that Williamson should've continued as OC, and I'd come to understand that George Seifert wasn't given much choice).

Marshall's title was to get him (which at the time seemed great - he'd had the #1 defense; he came from the same system Seifert did), which is how you did that back then; it ended up leaving a bizarre hierarchy, with eventually two AHCs on one team.

John Fox tagged Scott O'Brien with the AHC title upon entering, and trusted Jim Skipper with it after O'Brien left. Skipper seemed like a natural choice to become head coach here at times if it were needed (and at times last year, it felt needed). I'm not a fan of firing head coaches mid-season, but if you do it, you have to identify a candidate that's not already in charge of one unit. It's an imbalance of power, and leaves that coach with the worries of both a failing unit and a failing team.

Which brings us to now - no assistant head coach. It's a young team, and the feeling seems to be that should the Panthers name one down the line, it'll be earned.

And there are no concerns of firing Rivera, by any means. I think, administratively, it makes sense given the attention he's stated he wants to put into defense, to have someone doing some day to day tasks however, and they don't have that.

Past that, there's no real succession plan. The young coaches coordinating the offense and defense are a combined unit younger than anyone else in the NFL (and yet each has experience at coordinating); at times both Rob Chudzinski and Sean McDermott have had mentions as head coaching candidates in the NFL. If either, or both, have the level of success that fans hope, they could get interviews. Then what?

It might seem far-fetched, but look at the last two head coaches - each had a coordinator change going into year two. Both promoted from within, changing the balance of the staff they'd carefully crafted (Fox had it again a few months later, with Sam Mills' cancer issues). Succession plans are necessary.

So who would succeed Rivera if needed?

Without an Assistant Head Coach, who knows. That's the owner's call in the end, but most often comes with an experience taking on those tasks with the existing team. I'm not a fan of coordinators moving - too much change. The only coach with real head coaching experience is Mike Shula. That seems to be a natural move.

What about coordinators?

Shula or Pete Hoener (TEs) could move up to OC as necessary; the others, excepting Fred Graves and John Matsko, lack the experience, and that pair doesn't have the coordinating experience of Shula or Hoener.

On defense, Ron Meeks makes natural sense, as the only defensive assistant with a lot of experience; however there's no assistant DBs coach right now, and no one to move up from the third-tier assistant pool.

Let's hope it never comes to this, unless it's a coordinator leaving after, say, a second consecutive Super Bowl. That I could handle.

Panthers Open to Media, Closed Soon After

2011-06-15T18:11:00.000-07:00

Media day closed Panther workouts, and lighted the shadows of what
happened over the last few days at Charlotte Christian.

Attendance was certainly something covered, but the biggest thing
unknown was the structure of the camp. Jordan Gross and Travelle
Wharton, the camp leaders, hired Velocity Sports Performance to cover
the conditioning portion, and installed portions of the offense and
defense during the 4 hour sessions.

They also had a lot of help from players who have experience with the
team and offense. In attendance from the past? Some of the former team
leaders, some considered the best the team has fielded at those
positions - Muhsin Muhammad, Wesley Walls, Steve Beuerlein, Jeff
Donnalley, Jeff Mitchell were there.

Media reports don't pinpoint defensive players, like Mike Minter or Mike
Rucker (actually, to back off Rucker, he's possibly considered a team
employee), both who would've been natural to show up. Unlike the
offense, which is a nearly universal Coryell system run by a number of
college teams and about a third of the NFL, the Jim Johnson system is
run by only a couple teams (Philadelphia, of course; St. Louis;
Carolina; and possibly New York depending on whether or not they
continued with the scheme after Steve Spagnuolo left for the Rams).

Carolina has hired numerous former players (Ricky Proehl, Ray Brown,
John Settle) among the younger level of coaches, in part to help handle
this situation as well - young coaches to help out the young players.
But it's great to finally see the level of history involved to allow
players who haven't been here in a decade to remain relevant.

Say what you want about Cam Newton, but he's doing the right things.
He's gotten more personal work in, you'd assume, than any other Panther.
Media exposure after the players-only workouts show two very good signs
- knowing (and therefore hopefully understanding) the offense fairly
well, and working out hard.

Newton flipped tires with the linemen, consistent with his actions at
Auburn and Blinn. They're the same actions that helped make him
successful there, championships at both, without a second year to build
on. That's not the actions of a guy trying to be an icon or
entertainer. That's the actions of a guy winning his teammates over -
not trying, doing. Working out and lifting with linemen is a
team-building activity you couldn't pay an analyst six figure salaries
to recreate.

The situation with the offense was inevitably overblown by Jon Gruden -
who grilled Newton, and rightly so, when Gruden asked about lengthy
playcalls and the response was "36". Add that with the Chudzinski "900
page playbook" comments by media and it became a crisis situation in the
media for a bit. But with good tutoring, he's learned it - with no
reason to suggest he otherwise wouldn't have within the structure of
minicamp. Which brings it back to the concern - that he "hadn't",
instead of he "couldn't". Newton's intelligence wasn't ever really
questioned, but his experience was (and it's still a concern - the world
he'll see from under center is a lot different from the one he saw in
the spread option SEC). But some of the things that were concerns -
character, work ethic - for now seem to be at bay.

Rivera Talks: Free Agents

2011-06-05T18:04:00.000-07:00

Ron Rivera recently talked about free agency and where the team felt like they had holes after the draft:

“Well, I think there are a couple of positions we most certainly need to make sure there are some good veteran depth there. We’re going to look at some of the defensive positions. We made a couple of moves here in the draft, but we’d still like to see if we can find a veteran defensive line guy who could help us. You look at our linebackers and we’ve got a couple of guys who are coming back after injuries, so we’ve got to see if there’s potentially if there’s a veteran guy we could bring in. The same thing with the defensive back position. Offensively, we feel pretty comfortable with our offensive line and our running back situation. We’ve got to resolve the wide receiver position and see how all that unfolds once this is done. Our quarterback position is what it is right now. We’ve got to talk about where we want to head as far as the veteran back up is concerned."

So, summary needs:
QB - veteran with system experience, short term starter
WR - dependent on Smith (and it would be - otherwise we have 'enough')
DT - veteran. Likely run stopper, due to cost
DE - situational on Charles Johnson's intentions
LB - likely OLB, with emphasis on blitz ability

Workouts: Newton's Opportunity?

2011-05-31T20:10:00.001-07:00

Jordan Gross and Travelle Wharton, two of the team's higher paid players and their two most consistent linemen, have started a players only team camp. Assembled at Charlotte Christian's playing fields includes about 35 Panthers, 15 or so free agent Panthers, and a paid Charlotte police officer to fend off media and fans.

Certainly, there are no coaches there. No scouts or staff. So Gross and Wharton are the defacto leaders. Not completely by accident, they're also the two players (aside from Steve Smith, who's absent) that still remember the Coryell offense from under Dan Henning.

Who else knows it? Well, Cam Newton, to a point. It's no secret that he's worked at IMG with Ken Dorsey, who played under Rob Chudzinski at Miami, and Chris Weinke, who was here in Carolina for Henning's tenure here. They drill the offense, along with other workouts, in his time there daily.

So, given that three guys know it, and there are no coaches there, it looks like a great time for Newton to step into a leadership role and help the other youth learn the offense. There's nothing but young receivers out there, for instance - great way to get to know them.

Speaking of opportunity, it'd be great to know the inner workings of this camp. For instance, if I was Gross or Wharton, clearly I'd have Mike Minter and Mike Rucker out there teaching the defense. I'd look hard at the costs of putting Dorsey or Weinke on a plane to help out. I'd have to hire someone trustworthy to keep things organized.

I know that this isn't necessarily about hardcore installation of the offense and defense, and it's not about drills. It's expected to be about teamwork, getting to know each other, and certainly establishing leadership on a young team that didn't see much of it last year. But there's an opportunity there, to bring in friendly faces to help.

Absent that, hopefully Newton takes the reins and covers that himself.

Draft Summary

2011-05-15T13:50:00.001-07:00

As time goes, how these guys fit, who they really are, these things will be written. For now, there's time for a summary on what we did.

Draft Overview

A few quick hits on the 2011 draft.

Offense:
*Cam Newton, right or wrong, is the star. We needed one, and a QB that you have to stick with.
*To go with that, Carolina picked up a shorter, but very explosive, receiver that fits the Coryell O and has both speed and production. They finished with two linemen that were great value.

What they missed:
TE. There were plenty of guys with quality left at the end of the draft, and I'm sure they'll come up with resolution on their two free agents, but it would've made sense to add a body.

Defense:
*Hand picking two DTs was a good idea, and Rivera explained it well in relation to the LBs playing "sideways". Pairing that with a talented but unfocused CB and weakside LB fixes the major needs.

What they missed:
Value, possibly. McClain was good, but as quality as Fua is, he was maybe a round high. Hogan was in range, but risky prospects aren't good value. Wilson was good value. Picking for need rarely comes with great value, though, and with the existing youth they had to pick the spots to improve.

Any impact for special Teams?
Lawrence Wilson will definitely add something. If Hogan is healthy, he may contribute. Technically, our long snapper the last two years came from this draft in a 7th round trade. Otherwise, not a lot. Maybe Pilares plays a little here as well, having size and strength for his height.

Did they hedge against possible FA losses?
Not really. Wilson at LB might add back depth lost with Anderson probably gone and Davis still rehabbing. Didn't protect at TE but did sign Shockey.

They still can't afford to lose Charles Johnson or Ryan Kalil, but hopefully wont. They didn't need to guard against Deangelo Williams but spoke a few different times as if he was a part of things anyway.

Did they improve?
Assuming both DTs can play, or they add a vet to go with the new duo, they should impact the run defense enough to allow third downs to be more impactful. Hogan at CB will depend on his rehab.

It's impossible to really predict Newton's short term impact, and Pilares is a bit of duplication as a young WR, but might be their best slot player right now. The linemen probably don't play right off.

So, it looks like the DTs are 'it', and whatever happens with Newton, for immediate impact. But without a 2nd, and without free agency, three likely starters on a team that's terribly young isn't bad. Guys like Wilson, Pilares look like they can work onto the field situationally already.

*Lack of BPA
This team definitely took need players, and for that, they lost some value. They also, in some spots, took guys who might not be "ready" - linemen that could add strength, speed guys who are coming off injury.

That looks like a bad thing, and maybe it is, but it's a unique year. The team has tons of youth already, so they had to pick and choose who fit best, who might make the most impact - along with the obvious hole at DT.

The move away from BPA is, hopefully, a one year thing. This team's best picks have often come when not necessarily needed at that point.

*Moving Forward?
FA should still net a vet QB. There isn't much room for a vet WR now, and that may or may not still be true if Steve Smith is traded. There are now 4 young WR that need to see the field, and experience will be missed. Wallace Wright may not have room to stick, but his previous Coryell experience might mean he's not cut right away and might go into camp.

There's still room for a FA DT, and if they wanted, a FA cornerback, but neither would be huge signings. A backup tight end might make sense if neither incumbent returns.

*#33

It's no secret to anyone paying attention that it was hard to lose the 33rd overall pick in the draft, and as we now know the Patriots took cornerback Ras-I Dowling with the pick.

What else was there?

Carolina could've upgraded DT earlier, with the ox-strong but still athletic Stephen Paea; TE Kyle Rudolph would've been a great long term solution.

Two Linemen to finish drafting

2011-05-15T08:45:00.000-07:00

At the end of the draft, I'll be honest, I was done. I finished the 6th round at a park with my daughter and finished the 7th at a bar with friends. Then my daughter got sick (rotovirus) and so I've just recovered from about five days of no eating. Coupled with a quick trip to Atlanta for Donald Glover, and Mother's Day, well, eventually you have to get back on the wagon.

At any rate: we finally picked linemen. Our final two picks were both compensatory picks, and both fill out the line roster with ability and smarts.

6 (203) - Zach Williams, G/C, Washington State (6'3, 306) is an interior lineman because he's a bit stiff in the midsection, but he has good enough feet for the zone blocking game we're running. He has a nasty streak, has a good punch in his blocks, and slides well. He has experience with the shotgun snap, is able to do so looking forward, and is a technically sound center with good ability to adjust and order teammates around.

7 (244) - Lee Ziemba, T, Auburn (6'6, 317) is a fairly athletic, long armed tackle who started for four years in the SEC. Considered by many to be a top 100 pick, Ziemba could've been picked from the 4th on and it wouldn't have been considered an issue. He's not a great physical prospect - he's already his size, but struggled to pull a 20 x225 bench press, and his 40 time was 5.6. But, he's an aggressive lineman with good feet that can become a good right tackle.

He was also the LT for Cam Newton, but that's a feel-good story and linemen aren't feel good stories.

Williams and Ziemba make a lot of sense, especially this late. While the line is all but set - assuming Ryan Kalil returns, and he should, it means 4 of the 5 expected starters are under contract at least two years - depth is an issue. Certainly, Jeff Otah can't be a guarantee, having missed more time in his three years than anyone on the line, and while Geoff Schwartz filled in well at G and T, he can't do both.

Plus, linemen picks are necessary every year. Did last year's lack of OL doom them last year? Not alone, but that, and lacking anything veteran, did skin them too close after apparently lucking out in 08 and 09 (it's still amazing that Frank Omiyale is so well paid now). This year's pair should work like 08's, to give them a roll of the dice and see who can play at a high level for cheap. You need players like this.

166 - Lawrence Wilson, OLB, Connecticut

2011-04-30T12:33:00.000-07:00

6'1, 230 lb UConn Linebacker. Wilson kept coming up in my draft simulations as a fluid, natural athlete for a linebacker. He's lacking in size, but he's not just a Tampa 2 SS turned WLB. He does knife in for plays, he does blitz. He needs protected, but we just drafted two DTs.

Wilson is a top value pick at LB, where we had talent already. But I had a feeling Rivera would inevitably want a LB of his own, and a good player to ensure that Thomas Davis has a talented backup.

#132 - Kealoha Pilares, WR, Hawaii

2011-04-30T11:58:00.000-07:00

A 5'10, 205 lb run and shoot receiver, Pilares has a wide catching radius who's strong for a receiver his size, goes over the middle, and can stretch the field.

He put together 88 receptions, 1300 yards, and 15 touchdowns last year, coming up from 66/690/4 last year. He's a very productive slot type receiver, and is smart enough to make the Coryell reads that inside receivers must make - reading the coverage, reading the corner, and making the choice along with the QB to break a route in a different direction.

I'm a little surprised they went receiver, with three young guys on staff, but even with a backlog of young players, the new staff will want their guys. Pilares fits, especially in providing a young slot guy if Steve Smith is gone.

#98 - Brandon Hogan, CB, West Virginia

2011-04-30T11:44:00.001-07:00

A tremendous, and tremendously risky, pick. I admit I didn't pay much attention to him post-draft, with the DUI and knee injury, but the film on this guy is fantastic.

I can't wait to see him on the field, and his career will be defined more on whether he can be on the field than whether he can excel on it - he will excel, but will he stay healthy? Will he keep his nose clean? He seems to get it. Let's hope he spends as much time regretting his mistakes as rehabbing, and does plenty of both.

Summary Through Day Two

2011-04-29T21:20:00.000-07:00

*Cam Newton showed up today, talked to press. He's refined in his speech. Talked to advertisers, who will love him most of the time.

More importantly, he met with staff for five hours, says Sal Paolantonio. Which was important, since apparently there's a lockout again.

Also coming in (early), Jimmy Clausen. I'm sure it was for a playbook, and I'm sure some confident words from him to staff, to go with reassurance from the staff. Who knows if he remains here.

*Never did trade. Luckily.

It would've been nice to get athletic, strong DT Stephen Paea, just not strong enough to waste future picks on it. Luckily we didn't, and sitting at the top of 4 with the first pick we hopefully won't have a need to trade any more future picks.

*We received two DT, luckily since we're starved at the position.
For years it was Jenkins and Buckner, then swapping Lewis and Kemoeatu in for Buckner, and eventually out with Jenkins. Since, a bunch of nothing. Hopefully this tandem is ready to play, because they'll play.

Hard to remember back to preseason, when Tank Tyler and Louis Leonard were starters. Ed Johnson may or may not return. So these two rookies are what we have. Would definitely like to see Andre Neblett get plenty of work too.

*The more Ron Rivera gets into things, the more it makes sense that he's the young, idealistic type coach who's going to want to stop the run, to help create pressure. He won't be as passive about bringing that pressure, but there's definitely a renewed sense of the front four with these picks.

So, it may be very run the ball, stop the run. But it certainly won't be conservative. It will be interesting to see how much emphasis the OL gets tomorrow, versus the remaining need on defense at CB.

#97, Sione Fua, NT, Stanford

2011-04-29T19:29:00.001-07:00

Fua (6'1, 307) is a big, strong nosetackle, who excels at getting off the ball low and fast. He's tough to move, tough to get under his pads, and tough to beat mentally or physically. He's the type nose tackle that championship teams have.

He has a little mobility, but lacks in athleticism, and scouts are split on whether or not he can become a legitimate pass rusher. He can learn to use his hands better, and will need to learn a move or two, but whether his feet are good enough to allow it to go toward productivity is harder to say. Still, his role will be bringing up the third-and-longs that allow you to punish the QB - him being able to produce on 3rd down would simply be a bonus.

I like it. I watched a ton of Stanford football the last two years, with their Coryell-style offense and tough defense. Fua's a legit player. Some sites had him lower, but he's a good fit here.

#97, pre-pick

2011-04-29T19:00:00.000-07:00

coming up on 97, five picks away.

I like for the CB need, Curtis Brown/Texas, Kendric Burney/UNC.

Drake Nevis finally went, but Kenrick Ellis, the raw Hampton DT, still there.

Sam Acho is, again, an intriguing rush LB type, that just isn't a need right now because of the DEs we have, but he's an intriguing top level player.

I also like Jordan Cameron, the very raw TE from USC. Not a lot of OL to like here, Marcus Cannon is too big, Clint Boling makes sense, and would be good in zone at guard.

#65 - Terrell McClain

2011-04-29T17:55:00.000-07:00

McClain (6'2, 297, South Florida) is a well built, active run stopper at DT. Good feet, flashes athleticism, and can

He's athletic enough to play nose, off the guard, or outside on the tackle if you're shaded over or giving a 3-4 look. He has a good first step, can work laterally, and can stunt/slant.

However, he looks like a rotation player right now, can push the pocket, but doesn't have great moves. He doesn't always show the athleticism, because he needs to get better conditioned. It shouldn't be hard, and with 29 reps at combine, he's on his way to having a lot of strength. One place I personally don't think he can overcome is a smaller base, so he won't consistently overpower from the trunk. But in a one-gap scheme, not the worst thing.

I wanted Drake Nevis, but we got a similar player without the size limitations or the short arms. No complaints on this pick, a definite need.

#65 - pre-pick

2011-04-29T17:27:00.001-07:00

Sitting at 62 - I like Drake Nevis at DT, maybe Sam Acho as an outside shot at the hybrid OLB spot that Norwood would likely play. Not a lot at CB I love but maybe Ryan Hill at CB. Outside shot of an OL like James Brewer. Let's see what we come up with.

Panthers Trading Back Up?

2011-04-28T20:35:00.001-07:00

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcsouth/post/_/id/20562/panthers-looking-to-trade-into-round-2

Sal Paolantonio reporting Carolina is willing to place a future early pick and the 65 pick into getting back into the 2nd round. Of course, Paolantonio isn't reporting it to much of anyone, since it didn't make it to air - nothing did. There was very little reporting at all for ESPN, just commentary.

At any rate, the trade is supposed to be for a DT or CB - both of which make sense, I'd only put TE with those two as far as youth needs, and TE seems deep. You could argue DT is deep, too.

As a fan, please don't. At some point you have to stop doing this, even things out and get back at a full draft in 2012.

Since any pleas will go unheard and Hurney will inevitably trade up, here's what's best available at DT, CB as of the 33rd pick:

DT:
*Stephen Paea, Oregon State - we make plenty of Pac-10 picks anyway, and Paea makes sense as a one-gap 3-4 or 4-3 hybrid. Great first step, great short space run defender, who needs to improve his change of direction and only bull rushes well so far.
*Drake Nevis, LSU - a little short at under 6'1, but highly productive one-gap player who, like Paea, could play any of the inside roles in Rivera's hybrid defense. Has more moves, but not as good of a first step and shorter arms.
*Jarvis Jenkins, Clemson - Looks to be a nose tackle. Top run defender with size that can become power, but with athleticism to still be one-gap. Another bull rusher without moves.

CB: only three CBs have come off the board, and you could argue why any of them could be the top player at the position. Here's what's left:
*Ras-I Dowling, Virginia - hard-nosed football player at corner. Good in man or zone, good deep, plays the ball bt doesn't take tons of chances and plays the run tough.
*Ryan Hill, Miami - raw player because of injuries, but physically all you want with a hard working demeanor.

If they traded up later in the 2nd, look for:
DT
*Kenrick Ellis, Hampton - oversized two gapper, who could fit as a nosetackle
*Marvin Austin, UNC - could be dominant, fits for size and athleticism as a one gap guy. You have to buy into character with this guy, which is why I'd put him closer to 45-50 than 33.

CB:
*Rashard Carmichael, VT - shorter (5'9) but longer arms and no other real limitations. Great feet, athleticism, and zone awareness.

#1 - Cam Newton

2011-04-28T17:29:00.000-07:00

Well, we did it. We picked Newton, the worst kept secret I hoped wasn't true.

Kid has an arm, and I don't care about his character concerns (yet). My concern is his accuracy, and his inexperience, more than anything. After the draft, or at least should I get a chance in the next day or two, I'll start working on thoughts for what we should do with Newton to get him to be the QB we want him to be, instead of the running guy he is.

Lockout "still lifted"; Newton

2011-04-27T19:34:00.001-07:00

Judge Nelson put the players ahead of the NFL again, lifting the lockout essentially permanently (it's much less likely the lockout restarts on appeal). What does it mean? Nothing, yet. Rules on the league year will come, then the league year itself. All will happen after the draft unless the various sides all agree on things like player trades, and they haven't agreed on much in years.

Night before the draft now, 21 hours until the pick.

Everyone keeps saying the pick is Cam Newton. I've made myself clear, both in the past and this year, that QBs aren't magically the top player taken every year because they're the best players. In this case I don't even know that Newton is top 15, and plenty of scouts agree.

But, it looks like impending doom - a running QB in a timing system; an inaccurate QB in a system that requires accuracy. An offense that will probably have to adjust to one player's strengths to make all other players' skills a variable.

It can work, but it will take a lot of things to fall into place. And I doubt it does, at this point, but I don't doubt we'll take him.

There are other picks, and while I had grand thoughts of putting together players to watch at the top of the 3rd and 4th, the picks that will have to matter if we're picking a fucking project QB, I haven't done so.

So quick thoughts - at 65, I'd really love a DT. Need a DT. Kenrick Ellis and Jerrell Powe are intriguing big men, but makes more sense to go with a Jarvis Jenkins or similar 300 lb guy, instead of 340. Unlike Marcell Dareus, prospects at the top of 3 probably won't be able to do everything well, though, so the player has to be a run stopper anyway.

Alternately, a TE makes sense - Rob Housler has the huge athleticism but is raw; Lance Kendricks makes sense a round later if they feel OK about his routes, or if they want more raw athleticism, Jordan Cameron. They do have their yearly Gamecock pick to make, so that could be Weslye Saunders.

One of the top 100 picks will inevitably be a cornerback - Aaron Williams, Marcus Gilchrist make sense to fight for nickel to start, and then be starting zone guys. Toughness, instinct more than anything.

If anything outside those three spots made the top 3 non-Newton picks, I'd call OL. WR is a need, but needs a vet. OL has veterans, WR doesn't. And OL makes sense in any and every draft. Florida's Marcus Gilbert keeps jumping out at me, more than the others likely available.

But, it's fairly rare that guys I lock onto pre-draft are picks. Right about this time every year, fans get heartbroken in April and fall in love in September. It's part of the process. Expect trades - Hurney averages about 1.5 trades per draft - and likely a bit of a move toward smarter players with a little less upside.

Steve Smith - Locker Empty

2011-04-26T20:34:00.000-07:00

Players, for the moment, can't work out yet.

The only Panther to show up at Mint Street today was John Kasay, a player rep for a union that, according to presiding Judge Nelson, isn't a union (it would be interesting to see a ruling on her behalf when the NFLPA suddenly becomes a union again).

Meanwhile, Steve Smith's locker is empty, suddenly.

So is there a trade in the works? It may be now or never, really. There are no "player to be named later" situations in the NFL, so Smith probably won't be traded before the draft. If not, what's the benefit, from a compensation standpoint, in doing so? Trade a player now, for 2012 pick that still won't be that high?

There's the feeling, naturally, that peeking behind the curtain and seeing that Smith isn't currently a part of things means a receiver pick at #1. I don't know if that's the case, but I doubt they move Smith just to get another young receiver. Replacing Smith, ideally, means another vet. Three San Diego WR along with the 2nd TE are available in free agency, though to this point Carolina hasn't actually shown much interest in Chargers players, despite the obvious connections.

Either way, the team will need some veteran ability at WR. With three second-year WR that should make the roster, a rookie - even a dynamic player like Green - won't be enough experience.

Lockout Lifted

2011-04-25T18:45:00.001-07:00

Looks like the lockout is no more.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=6424084

so, barring an unlikely stay on appeal, the owners continue to have no leverage, despite them having the worse end of the deal in 2006. The most concerning thing, to me, is that Judge Nelson determined that the NFLPA decertification isn't a sham. It obviously is - they'll have their hand right in the money ASAP.

Now, if there's a stay, there's a lockout. But that doesn't seem likely. But is there still a chance of free agency this week? There will probably be players showing up tomorrow. There's realistic reason to suggest that coaches will try to even work out players, in a last ditch effort to get an idea on what they have.

Softli: It's Dareus

2011-04-24T22:21:00.001-07:00

Just his opinion, but former Panther scout, turned college personnel director, and now former Rams VP, Tony Softli says he believes Dareus is the pick:

"They need defensive linemen. They have for awhile," says Softli, who also has a history with the Rams. "I really think they're gonna pass on Cam Newton. ... I really believe it's gonna be the defensive tackle." While we still take everything with a grain of salt, it's important to note that Softli's info has been solid this offseason. He was the first to point out Adrian Clayborn's Erb Palsy condition, and among the first to explicitly report on Ryan Mallett's drug use at Arkansas."

It's a bold choice, pushing that. So far, most are convinced of Cam Newton, or on rare occasion, a trade. Barring that trade (for value, not because we don't have young players), Dareus is what I'd want, by far over the others - I'd heavily advocate the trade itself except it comes with losing Dareus at pick 2 or 4.

NFP Might Have The Wrong Idea

2011-04-17T08:09:00.000-07:00

National Football Post has had some excellent content lately, from Andrew Brandt ( @adbrandt on twitter) bringing insight on labor, to the great, and hopeful article linked below on Carolina bluffing on Newton:

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Are-the-Panthers-bluffing.html

However, Brandt mentioned offhand that "New Panthers offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski’s playbook is believed to be somewhere in the vicinity of 900 pages, which makes it one of the most voluminous in the league. Virtually every play has a shift and/or motion. It’s a difficult offense for an experienced quarterback."

(link here: http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFP-Sunday-Blitz-9962.html)

So let's go into why that isn't necessarily a concern.

While I have been studying Chargers and (ugh) Cowboys gametape to pickup tendencies and see Coryell in its modern forms, I haven't come up with the easy explanations on paper I've wanted to write. Hopefully this summer, we'll get to see that.

In the meantime, know that the offense is much more intuitive than 900 individual plays that require a player to learn every facet of the play. If you know your 20 or so formations, the 5 shifts for your position, and know what your codes mean (i.e., routes, which are intuitive for receivers, or your zone protections, for a lineman), the play tells every player on the field what they're going to be doing.

In other words, if you can learn the words of the language, you can speak the language. You're not memorizing each of 900 plays individually as if they're separate, unrelated plays.

Coryell does rely on shifts, motions, and formation disguises to run the same plays. One run play can be run ten ways or more, one pass that ends up in featuring the F post (a key play in this O), can be run over a hundred (I'll diagram 525 F Post one day soon, along with other staples).

As a matter of fact the average Coryell OC can bring 200 plays into a game where he'll call no more than 75. But set up as an intuitive form, the player can learn what's needed in a much smaller space than Brandt is suggesting.

Not that I believe that a lockout-shortened season with a brand new coaching staff is a good situation to draft Newton into. He's got very limited experience with plays, was fed reads from the sideline, and worked exclusively from shotgun. He has huge growing pains ahead, not only in the average NFL offense but in the correct usage of technique and decision making.

An Argument Against Defense #1

2011-04-17T07:58:00.000-07:00

Carolina doesn't lack defensive talent, and that side of the ball has stars. As the draft approaches, the best bets continue to look defensive. Offensive options - essentially, two QBs and two WRs on a team that took 2 QBs and 3 WR last year - look much shakier.

I've argued that defense is the best bet before, despite offensive concerns. That offense needs vets, and leadership. But here's an argument against defense up front - Rivera likely doesn't need it. Rivera's #1 overall defense - aided by a #1 offense - was most remarkable for doing it without stars. There weren't the superstars of past Chargers teams - most notably Shawne Merriman, and the trade of Antonio Cromartie. It was a cohesive unit of 13-14 defensive players who weren't looking for limelight, just did their work.

So if Rivera can do that there, is it necessary to do so here? The stars - Beason, Davis, depending on your viewpoint you could pick from Johnson, Gamble, Beason, Godfrey as supporting stars - could give Rivera more talent than he was working with, but is as homegrown as what he had there. If defense is easily made to work without more blue chips, why waste the opportunity? The offense is the side in desperate need.

Still, a defensive tackle is very hard to find that can do it all - like Marcell Dareus can. Look at 3rd round possibilities, and you see guys who can do one thing very well, that might have a shot at doing other things, but essentially a group of situational players (mostly run stoppers).

And, those offensive options still look iffy. If AJ Green, who could be available at 5, is the pick, we have four young WR and Steve Smith. If it's Cam Newton, you're talking a total lack of production for two years or playing a QB without basic fundamentals. So, that's the 2011 NFL draft - tons of options that make no sense.

Newton, or not?

2011-04-05T15:31:00.000-07:00

Nolan Nawrocki says the Panthers aren't interested in Cam Newton:

http://www.profootballweekly.com/2011/04/05/carolina-seeks-second-round-pick

though this is the same reporter who trashed Newton thoroughly with character and technique concerns earlier in the week.

Let's be honest, the Cam debate has been beaten soundly to death at this point. With guys like Mel Kiper recently pushing Newton to #1 overall - without anything to change their opinion - punditry is really very affected by itself. One outlet upgrades a guy, so others must, too. They're compared against each other, and available to do so.

Teams don't have that, which is why you regularly see shock and amazement that teams' draft boards don't match the media's - which often tends toward a consensus since they influence each other's.

So in this last few weeks of draft coverage, keep in mind that no one knows what Carolina's draft board actually looks like. Not Nolan Nawrocki, not Mel Kiper. Not Warren Moon or a suddenly silent Cecil Newton. Hopefully, Nawrocki's right, personally. I'd prefer that. But, if Nolan's reporting is accurate, he could be screwing it up for us anyway.

Rivera Talking All The Time

2011-03-27T15:34:00.000-07:00

When Jerry Richardson talked about the new coach being "what they want" instead of just "what the coach wants", it appears offense wasn't the only thing on their mind.

Being more media friendly has to be part of it. Rivera, quoted plenty as a player and assistant coach, is popping up everywhere. From commenting on new Eagles DC Juan Castillo, to going on Profootballtalk live to talk about free agents, he's been on the clock as a media quotable since being hired.

It makes sense, since he came from TV before coaching. A GM that came from news couldn't have missed that. But, it's also a stark change from the last guy, who did a lot of doublespeak and dismissed media often.

The problem? local media isn't picking it up. There's not a regular discussion with Rivera, and yet Rivera's still talking.

Rivera went on NFL Live on ESPN this week, talking about how he felt Marcel Dareus is the better player between he and Nick Fairley. Some suggest the smokescreen was in play, stating he raved more about Fairley. Still, I can say with certainty, no Panthers coach has openly discussed player ratings with media.

Then, he discussed the idea that Patrick Peterson isn't a bad choice at #1 just because he's a CB:

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFP-Sunday-Blitz-2807.html

the thing is, though, the local media isn't touching it. None of this has made what should be the top source about what the team might do, which has apparently chosen to be on the sidelines. No wonder Rivera's talking to other sources.

Clausen Press

2011-03-25T17:34:00.000-07:00

It's been an interesting week for heir-apparent of the moment Jimmy Clausen, sitting back and watching the press pick any of various quarterbacks for his team. He recently returned from the Bahamas, and curiously, retweeted a motivational statement from someone who isn't actually Beyonce Knowles.

http://twitter.com/#!/jimmyclausen

I'll spare analysis of whether it's better that Clausen would unknowingly retweet a Beyonce impersonator, did it knowingly, or follows either the real or fake thing. It's all suspect.

At any rate, Ron Rivera says Clausen got too much blame, in one of the least encouraging ways to support a young quarterback.

Marty Hurney was more encouraging:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/03/25/marty-hurney-thinks-judgments-of-jimmy-clausen-have-been-unfair/

So will they replace him?

It's obviously more complicated than that. First, Clausen won't be leaving, unless he's traded. There's apparently a market for him still, though they'll never get back that mid-2nd round pick.

They need a veteran anyway, so it's not a matter of who will play right now. That's the amazing thing, that you have to learn from last year's debacle and understand all this quarterback talk is talk. Whoever plays next year most likely won't be among the group being discussed.

More Newton Fodder

2011-03-15T19:36:00.001-07:00

I hate to hammer on Cam Newton, but even as he seemingly falls (at least
in internet rankings), advocating for him becomes greater in the community.

I'd love the opportunity to get the average Newton supporter one on one, no audience to impress. Tell me more about his accuracy - we know his mechanics aren't great. Tell me more about his pocket presence - we know he can run, but while he's the type who could force rushers to slide off him, can he just slide in the pocket and get the ball out without the concerns?

Tell me more about him reading defenses - our offense is a deep-to-short offense. Can he read the defense, check down if needed? Tell me more about his release. Is it lightning fast? Tell me all about his footwork. His feet are fast, but can he get in his drops, quickly, consistently? Can he transfer his weight to the front foot and power into his release?

I have concerns about all of those questions. We know he's athletic and has a big arm, and those two attributes are secondary to the above questions - in that order, as my opinion stands, on any quarterback. So why bother the average fan? Because hammering the internet daily on a crusade for a player should, in my opinion, come with some knowledge.

Make no mistake, I don't think Blaine Gabbert is really it, either. He looks the part, but doesn't have many positives over Newton, and didn't have as good a season last year. He's a measurables QB, too - high wonderlic, tall, big - and while he's a better pro prospect for bust potential, he's got a long way to go, too. And the ceiling doesn't seem as high - he panics a bit in the pocket, he doesn't have a lot of productivity. If tape is what you go by, and it should be, Newton does
win that battle despite horrendous mechanics that won't fix themselves quickly.

And that's the problem. I don't know who fits. I don't like either at #1. I'd prefer neither, but would at least feel better about a trade down if we had to do this. The alternatives, without a free agency session before the draft, aren't great (and 2012 doesn't offer more hope). There could be a feeling inside Mint St that we need to pay the price while we have the capital, regardless of the downside.

PA offered 2010 rollback

2011-03-15T19:30:00.001-07:00

The aftermath of last Friday's eventual NFLPA decertification and NFL lockout won't be fully known for months, if not years. I'm squarely behind the owners in this one (2006 deal was bad, and the owners still tried right up to the end; the PA didn't really deal and then made outrageous demands before cutting things off), but the PA did offer one suggestion I've stated they should do - roll things back to 2010 rules.

2010 rules would ensure football through 2011, and a 2012 draft. Those two are critical to the survival of the league, and two things they don't currently have. Carolina, specifically, would benefit from being able to work out now, installing the offense and defense to a ton of new, young players.

2010 rules would also give teams a lot of things they've prepared for -
a franchise tag and restricted free agency (extended to 4th and 5th year players). It would allow Carolina up to a full year to retain long term deals with Deangelo Williams, Charles Johnson, and so on; it would give them players like James Anderson and Richard Marshall at low-rent one year deals, allowing time to work younger players into roles.

But, 2010 didn't have the rookie wage scale. That seemed to be settled, but I don't know how easily that would've ported into rules that otherwise would remain unchanged, and under the idea that the rookie scale was to push benefits to other entities. Without a rookie pay scale, Carolina would've grossly overpaid for a #1 overall rookie, unable to dish the deal off.

Lockout; Marcell Dareus

2011-03-11T21:28:00.001-08:00

The NFL is apparently officially locked out. Given that the players' association doesn't exist, but what's left of it will have to fight the lockout - and then antitrust after - there will not be free agency before the draft.

That changes the NFL's landscape of how it will go about picking the new players - most teams expecting free agency won't have the luxury, and no team will have the luxury of knowing whether they'll get to keep anyone (Carolina, for instance, could go from having two free agents to 25+, depending on whether 2010 rules or more traditional FA rules apply).

I haven't talked much about the draft yet, and so far most of the info has surrounded quarterbacks - Andrew Luck when available, and Cam Newton adversely taking that space, right or wrong. At 90% of the time since December started, I've been against taking a quarterback. That's not meant to be a ringing endorsement of Jimmy Clausen, as much as it is a lack of great options. A veteran is needed anyway, so despite the want, you can't reach for an ill-fitting malcontent like Newton.

I can come up with valid reasons to not choose any number of various players, and rarely many reasons otherwise. It's harder to say what I'd do. So what would I do?

I'd pick Marcell Dareus, as of right now. He's not really worse than Nick Fairley, who entered the offseason higher, and has a lot smaller downside and more versatility. But does that mean he's not explosive? Not at all. He doesn't have the higher ceiling Fairley does, but he's better, has been better, and probably will be better long term.

Since most people only saw Fairley in the national championship game this year, consider where Fairley was last year when Dareus was in that championship - winning defensive MVP, returning an INT for a TD and knocking Colt McCoy out of the game. Fairley, like most, watched from home, but not as an Auburn player, as a community college player. Fairley's been more explosive, and for longer.

And, he fits into the pro multiple defense, as I explained in an earlier post. DaQuan Bowers is a left end, Robert Quinn a right end. Fairley is a 3-technique DT. Dareus can play even-front DT, nose, 3-technique under tackle, 5-technique (3-4 DE, lining up on the OT), and in a pinch, 4-3 DE. He's a fluid athlete that can pursue down the line, but has the strength and body type to be disruptive against the run as well.

And it fits a need. Dareus would be the versatile Richard Seymour type player you need in a pro multiple defense, a true 3-down DL, that would round out the power needed in the new defense. An offensive player would be great, if the right one's there, but better to hit on a huge need with a great player than reach for a lesser one.

Decertification And You

2011-03-11T16:39:00.000-08:00

With Jeremy Shockey, the Panthers picked up the last free agent before labor unrest officially came due.

With the NFLPA decertifying, they may be bookending Shockey with the next player assigned in the league. There won't be free agency before the draft with decertification.

Decertification means the NFLPA gave up. In my opinion, the league gave a good stab at the last offer, the PA wouldn't budge, and decertification makes them look unwilling to continue to work. Here's more on decertification itself:

http://nfllabor.com/2011/03/11/exclusive-summary-of-nfl-proposal-to-nflpa/

and here's the last offer the league gave:

http://nfllabor.com/2011/03/11/exclusive-summary-of-nfl-proposal-to-nflpa/

If they go the hardcore litigation route, there won't be free agency before the draft.

Otherwise, there'll be 2010 rules, which means the team can choose to keep almost their entire team together through restricted free agency.

Shockey's Impact on Future FAs

2011-03-06T20:22:00.000-08:00

it looks like Jeremy Shockey's deal is essentially half guaranteed:

Base Salary is $3,000,000, 1/3 of which is guaranteed (paid now). There's also a roster bonus of $812,500, which he'll certainly achieve anyway, since they're almost certainly not going to cut him before the season.

$3.8 million isn't excessive for a one year rental of a guy of this ability.

The guarantees are interesting, though he would inevitably get all that money within the year anyway.

The Pro Multiple Defense

2011-03-06T13:44:00.001-08:00

Watched the Chargers tape of dismantling the Colts from 2010, to get an idea for our offense and defense. I imagine I'll have more later, but the biggest thing I received from this was that Rivera didn't really run a 3-4 last year - he ran a pro multiple - and I take him very seriously (now) about him doing so now.

The 3-4 questions come from sportswriters with very short memory. I, of longer memory, assumed 4-3 - the Tampa 2 will be represented, but so would the Jim Johnson defense. While those will undoubtedly be the case, after watching the 3-4 in action I have no doubts we'll use some of that, too.

Why?
Two reasons. One, fairly simply, is that the SLB blitzes enough in the Jim Johnson defense, and from the edge, that it resembles one anyway, and two, because Rivera adapts.

Watching the Colts/Chargers game, it was clear that he was doing what a 4-3 team had done to them. Three weeks before that for Indy was Philly, and new Panthers coordinator Sean McDermott did a great job taking Peyton Manning on - The Eagles won by two points in a game they forced Manning into 2 INT and 3 sacks (the last of which was the most IND gave up all year). Rivera openly states he copied McDermott's gameplan even though NE's 3-4 and KC's 3-4 both were successful as well.

In that game, Rivera did run 3-4 fronts, and his personnel essentially was all 3-4. But he commonly threw four-man fronts at Manning, still zone blitzing much of the time. Nickel fronts were the Johnson-style 3-3. The 4-man lines typically included a stand-up end from the 3-4 OLB, to adjust to personnel.

So a man of his word. A pro multiple defense.

Not many run it - Seifert used it in the 80s, Belichick used it until recently. Most teams never touch it, despite watching teams with an opposing defensive philosophy do well on game tape v/s a mutual opponent.

Most can't run it - 3-4 is most often two-gap, 4-3 one-gap. Even though most 4-3 teams do run an odd-front, their nosetackle is certainly not the same - a penetrating gap-splitter instead of the two-gap's plugger. Rivera inherited an oddity in SD - Wade Phillips' one-gap 3-4, which doesn't require 320 lb+ two-gappers. It requires larger OLB, sure, but otherwise, the 5 inside guys aren't all that different.

so, having to run a 3-4, he adapted. A Pro Multiple, made able with one-gap personnel. You can go from Tampa 2 to Jim Johnson looks fairly easily already, but you can add in the 3-4.

I really have no idea why more teams don't give these looks. A team lining up in essentially the same front play after play, week after week, is very basic compared to what the offense does. There's more room to adjust in a defense that can give you any of ten looks with different players in different places.

With more and more options to look for chinks in the Rivera armor, the more he means what he states. We will have a lot of looks on defense, and with it will come tons of pressure. Hard to argue with that.

Shockey Signed

2011-03-03T20:42:00.000-08:00

Carolina signed Jeremy Shockey to a one year deal Thursday, in a move that definitely changed the way Carolina has operated and may signal more to come.

Shockey, 30, has five pro bowls and two Super Bowl rings, most recently with the Saints. Emergence of rookie Jimmy Graham made him expendable, and his receptions and TDs had started to decline. Nonetheless, he's a weapon.

It looks like this regime made good on their promise to change the TE position, as well as apparently changing business on Mint Street in general. The one year deal is significant - not because it'll be big money (it's not, most likely), or long term (we know it's a one year rental). It's a tight end, a real one. They last had one in 2002, when Wesley Walls was tailing off. It would've been smart to at least use him in 2003 as a 2nd TE, but instead cut him, and the John Fox era would rarely hear from the position again.

So, here, a decade later, it's an honest to God tight end again. It's a guy with some deep speed, size, and a hell of a blocker. It'll remain to be seen if he can keep his attitude in check, keep himself healthy, and keep from getting punched by Steve Smith.

As for business on Mint St? This is the first real free agent signing since 2008 - and that featured low dollar high value veterans, not stars. Shockey is a star, regardless of his age or recent value on the market. Last year saw the purge of almost anyone over 30, and here we are with a guy over 30 (and with Super Bowl rings - to keep Ron Rivera from being the only one in the building with one, I guess).

Hopefully, this will work. Hopefully, we'll look back on this in October fondly. It was the first real step in showing that they're serious: that they want to throw the ball, and well; that they can and will spend.

Big Three Contingency

2011-02-27T10:01:00.000-08:00

Ryan Kalil, Deangelo Williams, and Charles Johnson are all sought for new contracts by the Carolina Panthers. They're all pending free agents, and there's a stated plan to bring them all back. But plans always require contingency.

Johnson's departure would have them keep Tyler Brayton (who went from a solid all-around player, to preseason sack-stud, to creating no regular season pressure at all), who they might otherwise cut or reduce his role. Greg Hardy and Everette Brown are OK young pass rushers who should grow, but it might force them to take a similar player to Johnson in Daquan Bowers, who may not fit as well in the new defense (which zone blitzes a lot, leaving the need for athleticism). Bowers is exceptionally talented at playing end but not a dominant rusher. The other options would decline from there, and turn a

There's no reason to think Kalil won't be here. As franchise player, he's guaranteed to be here unless he holds out (and he definitely won't), or is traded (he won't be). But the options narrow quickly without him - Mackenzie Bernadeau is a modestly experienced center that's struggled everywhere but LG. Veteran options exist, but Kalil would've been the top FA. It's quickly apparent when looking at other options, why Kalil was the tagged player.

Williams' contingency is obvious and apparent as well - Jon Stewart, Mike Goodson, and Tyrell Sutton can all be solid. Josh Vaughn is a step down, but they like him, too. Vaughn is not Williams, but for a team that wants to throw more, the 4th best back doesn't have to be the critical piece.

Shockey: Misfit; Newton and QB speed

2011-02-27T09:31:00.001-08:00

There's no doubt that Jeremy Shockey can play, and he fits the vertical offense we want to run.

At 30, speed is a bit of a concern, and he can't stay consistently healthy. It's not a Bob Sanders level injury concern, but he misses time every season now. His attitude is a concern, and clashing with Steve Smith is clearly a situation you'd need to watch.

Since the labor situation makes it unlikely they'll sign him anyway, it's all but meaningless that he's in for a visit. It's still a positive step forward from previous ideals.

Tons going around about Cam Newton. I don't like him, and don't think he's suddenly reformed because his agent is feeding him lines anymore than his charisma makes him less of a project.

His 4.58 40 shows his athleticism, which is good - and what we knew. Of course, this offense isn't predicated behind QB draws and option runs, but it can be useful. Some of the Coryell Offense's ideals come from 5 and 7 step drops that are predicated on quick drops, quick release, and hitting the release right on that odd-numbered step - no holding the ball, no time to sit and read. He, and Jake Locker, fit that part. Both, of course, need even the most basic of coaching, though.

Creative: RFA

2011-02-25T07:34:00.001-08:00

The RFA situation with Charles Johnson and Deangelo Williams is brilliant. The team announced today they'd place RFA on both, an unprecedented move.

The team apparently can't put either on transition tag (which would essentially only guarantee right of refusal on matching contracts) since they don't have 6 years accrued. The RFA situation applies only to the CBA as it sat for 2010 (before that it only applied to players with three years experience; last year, the uncapped situation pushed it to 4th and 5th year players).

At best, it shows a commitment that already existed - a commitment to keep both players. Since it's doubtful players will allow themselves to vote in a situation where players over 4 years have less rights on their freedom, the RFA tags will have no real bearing. Only way I'd anticipate that? If, at the last minute, both sides agree to continue 2011 under 2010 rules, which I've never heard actually suggested by either side.

Given that the CBA has caused Carolina infinite amounts of problems (forcing them to not extend youth, their mantra; forcing huge cap hits on players they'd otherwise cut; forcing a huge purge in 2010), it's good to see them push the envelope on what they can do with the lack of a new CBA, for once.

Various league sources suggest that the Panthers will tender more players - most of their 28 free agents are under 6 years experience - and that other teams may follow suit. It'd be smart to not deliberate extensively over who to tender, however, since again this seems to be a temporary move that won't matter.

The Next Step

2011-02-25T07:32:00.000-08:00

With Ryan Kalil tagged, it looks like the front office is playing a waiting game for a new CBA. Kalil, Deangelo Williams, and Charles Johnson all expressed a feeling that the team wants all three players, that deals are possible, and that the players themselves want to stay.

Granted, all players, when asked a bit before free agency, are probably going to say they want to stay**, but it sounds like there's a legitimate plan to put new contracts in hands as soon as possible.

(**Richard Marshall is an exception, but then again he expressed disappointment in going to a team with two starters at CB, and talked huge contract while he was still a nickel back. For those efforts, Carolina has leaked that he won't be back. It doesn't seem worth the effort to negotiate.)

So what are we legitimately looking at?

*With Kalil in hand, the expectation would be to lock up Johnson and then Williams, hopefully in that order. They'll look for a long term deal for CJ, which could spread out the cap hit on a young player. Assuming a CBA that allows deals 6 years or more, I'd expect a 7 year deal with a third year buy-in option that would otherwise drop it to a 4 year deal (with a heavy penalty for not picking up the option). I'd anticipate a deal in the $8-9 million range, based on market. That would put him in the second tier of DE, realistic for players

*With Williams, it's much harder to say. Carolina will want a shorter term deal, whereas Williams will look for security. A 4 year deal tends to be very heavy on bonus and salary, with no ramp-up period for lower salaries, but a 6-7 year deal rarely works out for teams dealing with starting RB (Shaun Alexander was cut within two years of his second contract, and a Pro Bowler when he signed it).

There aren't a lot of contracts for top RB out right now, and none for players who split carries, so value is a tough consideration right now. Maurice Jones-Drew received 5 years, $31M, with $17.5M in total guarantees, in 09. Stephen Jackson signed for 5 years, $48.5 million. So will the carry split hurt his value? Will his value to another team inevitably be more as a feature back? If I had to guess, and I've had a reasonable guess at recent contracts, the Panthers will start out at $7 million and Williams will start out at $9.5 million, with the differences being guarantees (which are harder to negotiate around).

I can't say if Carolina will pay $8 million or more for a part time starter, one that was somewhat unreliable over time for injury and turns 28 this offseason (which gives DW a career lifespan of 3-4 years at best). There's also the consideration of Jonathan Stewart continuing to be a greater force, and that he only has two years left. Having to choose could mean Stewart is gone in 2013, and paying a 30 year old Williams $9 million to do more work.

*Thomas Davis seems to be the team's choice at WLB, and that's reasonable. While the Tampa 2 was a better fit for him, he's still a powerful star in space and the concepts aren't much different in the Jim Johnson D (the SLB and MLB blitz more, and the WLB still contains more). James Anderson played lights out last year but was a better cover 2 fit in the SLB spot, and never really had the instinct for WLB. He's not a freelance player, and not a powerful athlete like Davis or Beason (JA and JB are similar in 40 time, but Beason's both more athletic laterally, in short space, and more importantly instinctive). Hard to say what Davis will command, but the team has made him a priority, and they should know by this point that he's recovered from surgery.

After that, I doubt there's room for much negotiation before free agency, and that's if all that happens before the draft. Since the team seems to have a plan handy, they can act quickly (many of these deals are delinquent anyway). If not, and they end up with just Kalil out of this, they've failed.

Kalil Tagged

2011-02-22T15:20:00.001-08:00

As anticipated, Ryan Kalil is the Panthers' 2011 franchise player.

Kalil, along with Deangelo Williams and Charles Johnson, were logical candidates. Without any ability to negotiate, it looks like they went with the player they could least afford to replace, but the major news orgs state they want to keep all three, and have already said they want Thomas Davis, too.

Kalil will cost around $10 Million as a franchise player, which hopefully will just mean they'll have time to work on a deal (preferaby after they wrap up the other three). A long term deal, which will likely eclipse these deals, will probably cost $8 million or more.

Prior attempts at a Kalil contract would've been thwarted by the 30% rule, stating that salary can't increase from a final year salary to a new contract salary by more than 30%. That would've caused exorbitant signing and option bonus money. Consider:

Kalil, for sake of clean math, would make $500k in his final year, meaning he'd not be able to get more than $650,000 in salary. Given that interior linemen at his level now go for $8 million or so, almost all of that money per year would come from bonus. $8 million over a term of 4 years is $32 million, and only $4 million would be base salary. That's an exceptional amount of contract guarantee, unheard of honesty. Since that money is guaranteed, Carolina would have no recourse if they had to cut or trade Kalil - that money just counts against the cap and accelerates if he's moved.

Now, the CBA won't likely have such a stupid clause in it from next year, but until now, that would've been what Carolina would need to work under.

So, the old CBA rules continue to screw Carolina, but if they can get at least two of these guys back along with Davis, they'll at least have come out of the aftermath younger, with a little cap room.

Rivera: Tag Coming; Who?

2011-02-18T15:24:00.000-08:00

Ron Rivera recently interviewed with ProfootballTalk, mentioning that Carolina definitely would use a Franchise Tag.

More recently it's come up that they won't use it on RB Deangelo Williams, apparently intending to use it on C Ryan Kalil.

I don't have a problem with making Kalil the priority, it's always been assumed that he would remain here. It's an assumption, as well, that he will garner a record-breaking contract for his position, or at least come very close. Nick Mangold signed, before the start of this season, a 7 year, $55 million contract - Mangold is better, but Kalil has earned two Pro Bowls in a row and appears to be the best NFC center over the last few years.

But, again it's assumed that he would be here. Franchising him guarantees it, but it seemed to be a fair guarantee he'd be signed.

Deangelo Williams wasn't guaranteed, and still isn't apparently.

Furthermore, there's nothing allowing the Panthers leverage to move Williams, if they didn't put him in their plans.

So, we can't unload Williams if he doesn't sign, or if his demands are higher than we want for a guy who'll get less carries this year.

We don't have to have Williams - two great backs is a luxury if you believe Jonathan Stewart will be healthier than Williams (he hasn't missed games, Williams has; Stewart never can practice, however), but in a RB-weak draft, and what some feel is a weak draft anyway, wouldn't it be great to exchange Williams for a late-first round CB?

Rivera on Smith

2011-02-13T21:45:00.000-08:00

Ron Rivera likes to talk.

He's no chatterbox, and he's no deceiver. But he talks to the media, unlike his predecessor, and he talks about things you want to know. He says it plainly, and without doubletalk. You can tell this guy's going to get a long leash with the media.

On Steve Smith, he addresses something neither the team nor the media have really said - that they're willing to shop Smith if he wants. Smith hasn't said anything - good, if he wants to actually have any trade value - but he's unhappy - again, good, I would be.

But it's highly unlikely the team wants to let him go. They just feel like it's time, if he's interested. Almost a 'now or never'.

Rivera seems to put a caveat to that "now" - wait until after minicamp.

That gives the team a chance to see if it fits with him - and it should, this is a more vertical offense than he's been used to. The end result is that the moody Smith, who had 46 receptions last year, has to bring in twice that, and obviously more than double the mediocre 554 yards and 2 TDs.

Coach Chudzinski could certainly use him - can't go vertical in this offense without an established deep threat, and can't use the under routes without pushing deep. Smith thrives on both when given the option. The ball will actually be thrown this year, and Smith would cease to be a 3rd option behind the 2nd TE and the 3rd RB, the two big 3rd down threats this year.

But while it seems like a good fit, it has to be a good fit for Carolina, too. If Smith takes this as an invitation for leverage or to get preferential treatment, that won't work. He has to be ready to work, and work hard. They want a leader there, and if Smith isn't dedicated to it he may not be the one deciding where he plays.

A Case For Cronyism

2011-02-13T21:44:00.000-08:00

The worries of the buddy system have long plagued the NFL - bringing you the succession of Richie Pettitbon and Rich Kotite at times, screwing up and comers for old friends. I'm sure Ron Rivera can tell you about losing out on jobs.

But what might initially seem like a bunch of nepotism and cronyism is often a matter of trust. It doesn't guarantee success, but nothing does. The buddy system isn't foolproof, it just gives you less unknowns. If I'm a coach, I want guys I know - they know my system, they know what to expect, they know how I work and I know how they do.

And, sure, there are coaches' sons in the league. Some have to get their start under dear old dad, doing menial work. What's the honest difference between John Fassel and another random young guy who has tons of interest in becoming a coach and doing the hard work of getting no credit for 14 hour days? If I spent no time with my family over my career and my kid wanted to do what I do, and he showed an aptitiude? Sure. If he can make his way later, without me, why not? The NFL weeds that stuff out quickly.

Same if it was a daughter. Yeah, you can coach. There's no doubt that Mike Brown runs the most nepotistic franchise out there - hell, he's following example of his father really. But that franchise could be the first to be led by a female executive, and it's both on its way and deserved. I think that's awesome.

I mean, it's not like Andy Reid's kids are employed as position coaches. You have to earn it.

It's gotten tougher with the assistant rules being what they are - allowing little freedom for movement anymore - to get guys that you really know, and trust. And the Rooney rule, when it's not being a laughingstock thanks to teams who don't care about it (and coaches like Ray Sherman that allow it), works - you're not hiring a coach because this guy knows that guy, you're doing so because you're required to do the research.

But it doesn't resolve the biggest issue - that coaches want coaches they know.

2011-02-12T22:47:00.000-08:00

Without a great sense of where we're going in free agency or the draft, I still feel good about where we're headed as a team. It took me a while to trust in the last regime, but I have a cautious optimism on what's happening right now.

I've gone on about the systems we intend to run but it's hard not to like the Coryell O when run right, and it's a good fit for youth, and our backs. The Jim Johnson defense is a rare one, that tends to have success and is bendable around personnel. We'll be one of the few teams running it, lucking into a DC that's run it behind a head coach that wants it and knows it.

And coaching personnel looks good. No flashy names, necessarily, but lots of shrewd moves. The coaches are familiar with the systems, and a good fit. They're either young, or highly experienced with a young counterpart. Relateable, and the teachers that Rivera stated he needed.

Of course, they've only completed part 1, the most idealistic part of a rebuild. They've picked coaches that have a similar philosophy, that fit their roles and positions. While it's not foolproof, that's the easy part. The part where they explain what they want.

THe wildcard in all this is Marty Hurney. The prior regime meant Hurney was an intermediary between the coaches and scouts. What is he now? He navigated the coaching search well, not putting too much ego into forcing his guys on Rivera. But what now?

Hurney is as good as his college and pro directors - I have no idea about Mark Koncz, but when we relied on bigtime names, we failed. Don Gregory remains a top-flight college scouting director, and we draft very well when we don't panic and decide to trade up for something.

I can say this - I never blamed John Fox for not being more accessible, or more quotable. He's worried about his football team, not the press page. The media begrudged him for it. Ron Rivera isn't a star coach, but he's accessible, and it's a nice change. May change again once he's been at it a while, but to see him quoted in national articles as the Carolina coach about things unrelated to the team is a first.

I feel like the repairing of this franchise is under way. Not a patching, but an honest push toward tearing down what's damaged and starting over.

So with a coaching staff in place, what's the next step?

With 28 pending free agents, no new labor contract, and having the most important draft pick since their initial one, Carolina has plenty to focus on.

They intend to make signing free agents Ryan Kalil, Charles Johnson, Thomas Davis, and others a priority - a wide array of players that want to stay, and and they know who'll be available when they draft, one thing no one else can say.

But it gets muddy from there. What labor situation will exist in two months? How much cap room will they have, and how will that impact how they intend to spend their money? What will that top pick cost?

Piling it on worse is the idea of contingency plans - what if you spent tons of time and effort on free agents, your own included, and suddenly the arrangement was to extend the current CBA by a year and remain uncapped? Suddenly, most of your upcoming free agents are RFA. You're bringing Richard Marshall back, for instance, or you have the ability to trade him (which would probably make both sides happy in that situation). You go from having two starting level LBs under contract to four. You suddenly have a veteran quarterback.

And the pool of guys you can draw from becomes so much smaller (again).

And that's the thing about this - it's racing headlong into darkness, until we know otherwise. If/when there's a labor contract, teams may have two weeks or less (who knows) to prepare for free agency - which means crafting deals very quickly under brand new rules to retain players before anyone else has a shot at them. It means possibly franchise tagging a player without knowing what that will actually mean for that player or in the new deal.

Armanti Edwards: Out Of Shape?

2011-02-10T21:24:00.000-08:00

Looks like Duke Robinson wasn't the only young Panther to show up behind schedule in conditioning. The Charlotte Observer reports now, in February, that Edwards was out of shape in August.

Setting aside the idea that Edwards being out of shape never seemed to be breached when it was topical - and that staffers from the Observer routinely blamed John Fox for not putting Edwards on the field more - it's still interesting news. And it took a baiting question to Antwan Randle-El at the Super Bowl to bring local news about a local player, from the local team, to report it.

Of course, Edwards knows how he needs to train for next year, now. I'm a little surprised no one got with him on it at the time, and it's always amazing to hear about a player who goes through the combine process looking for a shot at stardom and riches, but isn't in peak physical condition. If Edwards expected to be a QB only, sure, his 40 time is less critical, but he'd still want to show as an exceptional specimen and prospect. I mean, at 5'11 and a lefty, he'd have to show something exceptional at something.

So I don't know if it's time to legitimately question Edwards' work ethic. He's going through a terribly rough transition, from 1-AA QB to NFL receiver and returner. He won't make the field if he can't play this year, which turns him from project to

But, when all is said and done, if this pick doesn't work out, there'll be worry whether Edwards did enough. With that said, I guess I can see why the Observer might hold back that info - keep it quiet, don't taint the young player. Maybe Edwards truly lucked out getting a draw from the home team. Other rumored teams - NE seems to come up often, even though we traded with them to get the pick for Edwards - have media that would've given him a much harder hill to climb to get over that stigma.

The truth is, he's behind the two other young receivers, and if the front office does what they needed to do last year (bring in a veteran), Edwards may be out in the cold. He's less imposing than the other two, has less experience at the pro and college level at WR, and now has to work twice as hard to make up time.

McDermott: Fired, Recommended

2011-02-09T21:20:00.000-08:00

It looks like the media process is much stronger in Philadelphia, where Ron Rivera is found giving quotes about other team's staff, and where our new DC Sean McDermott gives interviews better than we'd see here.

http://www.csnphilly.com/02/05/11/McDermott-speaks-about-his-ouster-from-E/landing_eagles.html?blockID=404840&feedID=704

McDermott, on staff throughout Andy Reid's tenure there,was apparently notified about his release quietly to save face. Then, Reid attempted to cover the firing, contacting Rivera to setup the possibility of a lateral move, a move Rivera welcomed. It would save face for McDermott, a move instead of a firing, until the news leaked.

article here: http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/eagles/115461824.html?cmpid=15585797#ixzz1DJs6IBVa

McDermott also interviewed with John Fox in Denver, but it's not known if that was prompted by Reid as well.

It suggests that while Reid himself may have not been happy with the defense, he may have been persuaded to make change he wouldn't have otherwise made. Reid had suggested only days before that McDermott would stay. Follow that with attempting to cover up the firing, and it certainly doesn't look like an angry scapegoating at the least, and certainly shows Reid's respect for the young coach.

It also seems that Reid either didn't have a plan for the new staff, or those plans fell through. Dick Jauron made sense as a successor, but may have opted out. Jim Mora, Jr didn't come aboard. After a long purge of staff, they ended up with their own OL coach, an unprecedented move (the quoted move of Ravens coach Mike Nolan from WR coach to DC was clearly a move to stash the respected coach to let Marvin Lewis leave, which they did without missing a beat). If Castillo had been the choice all along, why not just hire him later that week and hire assistants?

McDermott was validated a bit with the Packers' win this week: his Philly squad held Green Bay to its lowest yardage total of the postseason. The Packers went on to dominate post-season offensive totals but only put 309 yards on the Eagles.

Also, since he interviewed with the team (which looks like they're trying to increase visibility, that article is here:

http://www.panthers.com/media-vault/videos/Sean-McDermott-Interview/c39dd9ff-7927-4ee1-bc17-bd1e9a3a77e2

RBs coach, LBs coach in

2011-02-05T18:46:00.000-08:00

John Settle is the new RBs coach, and Warren Belin is the new LBs coach.

Quick synopsis:
both were college coaches, very good college players from NC raising and NC schools (despite that, they're considered smart coaches).

Belin:
Marshville, NC; Wake Forest LB 87-90, graduating cum laude from a very good school; he coached with stops at William & Mary, Cornell and East Tennessee State, before heading to SMU, a decade tenure at Vanderbilt (which included growing responsibility including special teams coordinator, then recruiting coordinator). He jumped to Georgia last year, then got our call this year.

He's tied to Sean McDermott, having coached at W&M in 1995-96 while McDermott was a player. Belin is the only coach on the defensive staff without pro coaching experience (actually, the only staffer without pro experience other than Proehl, who has no coaching experience at all, and Turner, with 5 years college experience), but has been coaching since 1991. Any pro experience will be caught up fast - consider Rivera (a 9 year pro LB, with 7 years experience coaching the position), McDermott (coached linebackers twice with the Eagles) as able tutors.

Settle:
Reidsville, NC native, Appalachian St. RB, undrafted. 1000 yard rusher and Pro Bowler for the Falcons in 1988, and won the Super Bowl with the Redskins (he didn't play that year). He was the first undrafted RB to rush for 1000 yards, a rare feat considering the draft went a lot farther than 7 rounds - over 330 players were drafted back then.

Coached with AppSt in 94 after ending his pro career, then spent 95-98 with the Browns/Ravens as a third tier assistant. He followed staffer Pat Hill, who'd become the head coach at Fresno State, and was there eight seasons, six of which included 1000 yard rushers.

At Wisconsin, coached under Paul Chryst. Had 1000 yard rushers each of his years there, and led the big 10 in rushing the last four. He was there five years as RBs coach before getting called back to the NFL with Carolina this week.

The team needs a strength and conditioning coach, and teams often hire assistants to that coach. Why that's a coaching, and not training, title I have no idea, but it is. They may, and probably should, hire a young assistant DBs coach and special teams assistant, but they have plenty of staff if not.

sorry, I've been on the road the last few days. A sick child, followed by a great concert by the lovely Jill Andrews, and all day today celebrating various birthdays. More to come later.

Ryan Kalil: Contract Status

2011-02-03T10:09:00.000-08:00

I was looking up some other info and came across something I wanted to post re: Kalil's status. It looks like Kalil will return

Here are terms on the last few high-priced deals at center:

Jeff Faine, 2008: 6 years, $37.5 million, $15 million guaranteed

Jason Brown, 2009: 5 years, $37.5 million, $20 million guaranteed

Nick Mangold, 2010: 7 years, $55 million, $22 million guaranteed

It looks like there's been a new "highest paid center" each of the last three years. Will Kalil be it this year?

Kalil, along with Travelle Wharton, seem to make the most sense of what we have to fit into the zone blocking scheme that comes with our offense.

In a situation where Kalil returns, there's not a lot of room for line improvement. The unit struggled last year, partly because Jeff Otah missed the entire year with what had been expected to be minor surgery. The pair, with Wharton and Jordan Gross, would give only RG a spot to grow on the OL.

Beason's Extension, CBA, and Rookie Cap

2011-02-03T09:03:00.000-08:00

Most of the initial talk in this blog started years ago worrying about getting Julius Peppers done. Three years later, he's no longer a Panther and a player from that first year is now ready for a deal of his own.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/rapid-reports/post/14640139

Nothing radically "new" here, but good to talk about something other than coaching. Beason's obviously someone they want done, and they want him in quickly at a new deal that suits the new CBA.

You could argue that others need to be done "sooner", but I do advocate deals a year before it's necessary. There's no doubt they intend to build a team with Jon Beason as its defensive leader.

I won't go too far with the CBA - they need to get it done, and balance it back toward the owners but fair for both - but the ideas of a rookie scale may screw the owners to a point. "Rookies haven't earned their deals" is the battle cry by most, and one thing vets likely agree on. But consider that money might flow faster for depth now, if a rookie scale gets done.

Outside the top 15, players are a steal if they work out. Consider Beason - at 5 years, $12 million - made less in his entire contract than Julius Peppers did in any year since 08. Beason's next deal will be huge compared to his rookie season, and not undeservedly.

Chris Gamble was another late first round dratee, signing a 5 year $9 million contract as a rookie. He played well, and started at corner for all but 8 of his first six years. He ended up with a deal that paid him as much per year as his entire first contract. As you go further down, a second rounder gets only signing bonuses greater than a 5th, 7th rounder.

Sounds good, right? Well, a rookie wage scale would inevitably flatten out the curve, IMO. It's not $50 mil for the top guy and nothing for the 100th guy, in my guess anyway. So will it be worth it for the top player to be worth $40 million, the 25th worth $20 million, and the 100th player $10 million?

Proehl Hired

2011-02-01T19:33:00.001-08:00

Ricky Proehl was hired today, as an 'offensive consultant'.

It's great to have him on board, but I have no idea what that is. Everyone says that he'll work with WRs coach Fred Graves, which is logical, but without the word 'coach' in there, it lacks a lot of punch.

Will he primarily coach in minicamps and training camp? Will he not be full-time? It'd odd. Still, some Proehl is better than no Proehl, with his playing experience under the Coryell offense with Mike Martz.

Eric Washington for DL Coach; Pete Hoerner for TEs; Skipper Out

2011-01-31T15:22:00.000-08:00

Jim Skipper was told he's not in the team's plans at RB coach, but those plans aren't certain to anyone else yet. Chances are, it'll be a younger coach, with around a decade's worth of college experience, and a guy we haven't heard about. The pro market is about tapped out, and the guys with experience are older than we likely want.

Eric Washington, 41, was named defensive line coach. It's the fourth hire on defense, after coordinator Sean McDermott, DBs coach (and outgoing DC) Ron Meeks, and the guy who'll now be Washington's assistant, Sam Mills III. Washington and Mills will be overseeing the defensive line.

Washington was DL coach with Chicago last year, and assistant DL coach the two years before that under now-coordinator Rod Marinelli. A former Grambling player, he learned under coach Eddie Robinson, spent four years at the high school level coaching, then had stops at Texas A&M, Ohio, and Northwestern.

"Eric brings youth and experience to our staff and is a good fit to work with our young defensive line," Panthers head coach Ron Rivera said. "He has coached on all levels of football and we are pleased to have him on our staff."

_____

As I typed this, the story broke that Pete Hoener is now the TEs coach. Hoener was the 9ers TEs coach since 2005, has spent 25 years in the college ranks including having been OC, and has coached both TEs and OL in the NFL.

So what's left?

Carolina has a critical hire at LBs coach to complete the defense, though they may add an assistant DBs coach if the right guy is there.

They need a RBs coach for offense. They have two third-tier assistants already, so there's no telling whether they still have interest in hiring a third (Ricky Proehl). Proehl was rumored to be considered to be the special teams assistant as an added title to assistant WRs coach, and they traditionally do keep an assistant ST coach as well.

There's a continued hope they will hire LBs coach Dave McGinnis, since expected Titans hire Mike Munchak will have to rebuild the rest of the defense anyway. McGinnis was Ron Rivera's position coach, and a former coordinator and head coach.

WR coach: Fred Graves

2011-01-31T08:53:00.000-08:00

The Tennesseean reports Titans WR coach Fred Graves is leaving the Titans for the same position with Carolina. Graves has 35 years experience, including 19 at Utah where he was an alum, and coached / recruited Steve Smith. Graves has been in the pros for a decade with Buffalo, Cleveland, TN, and Detroit.

Smith and Graves shared a kinship and a hometown...they are both LA natives. Smith has been on record as having lobbied for Graves before.

Graves is the 6th offensive coach hired so far, including third-tier assistants. The team still has two expected offensive vacancies, at TE coach and RB coach.

It's less clear whether the team will still attempt to hire Ricky Proehl as a coaching assistant. Graves will obviously coach WR, and while Scott Turner's official role will be as a quality control coach, his background is WR as well. Would there be separate room for another coach? I have a hard time believing it, but I would be open to it. I'm always in favor of third-tier assistants helping out.

Fisher Out In TN, and our impact

2011-01-29T17:30:00.000-08:00

Watching Jeff Fisher in Tennessee, and seeing a little bit of negative feedback from local fans on hiring Norv Turner's son, Scott, as offensive quality control coach, has brought back a bit to mind on the Turner issue and the Schottenheimer issue.

To that, I mean the disagreement between coaches and front office over staff.

*Marty Schottenheimer was fired after 14-2 because of disagreements over staff - they'd lost Cam Cameron, Wade Phillips, and Rob Chudzinski to other teams, along with letting son Brian go to New York. The front office tried to push Ted Cottrell on Schottenheimer, who wanted brother Kurt.

*Turner landed in San Diego instead of Dallas because Jerry Jones had already hired now-head coach Jason Garrett as OC before hiring a head coach. Turner didn't agree to that, so he had to leave dreaem job Dallas behind. It went to Phillips, who never escaped the inevitability that Garrett would succeed him in the job.

*Ron Rivera ended up losing the San Diego job to Turner. Turner was forced into taking Cottrell anyway. Rivera's contract was up in Chicago, and instead of taking the hot hand in Rivera as DC, he took the LBs job.

Cottrell was awful, Rivera was promoted, and they eventually lost him to Carolina. To be fair, Kurt Schottenheimer wouldn't have been any better than Cottrell, but there was no room for compromise in that situation, to the eventual detriment of both sides.

Fisher's staff crumbled because of disagreements over assistant staff, as well. So where is the line between owner and coach supposed to lie? It doesn't seem like it's that hard to work together on these matters.

I'll also commend Marty Hurney once again, after stating the front office would have a heavy hand in the offensive hiring, for taking the Ron Rivera-approved choice of Chudzinski instead of waiting longer for other coaches that may not have been available. Media pushed Tom Clements of the Packers and Bill Musgrave of the Falcons, at at least one would definitely not have been available (Clements has been blocked before; Musgrave moved on with permission, but likely would've had no permission for a move interdivisionally).

The OC job was a point in which a GM with newfound power could've made his own name known, to push power over a new coach, and he made the sensible choice instead.

----

Adam Schefter of ESPN says that Carolina was turned down on OL coach Mike Munchak early in their process to fill vacancies quickly.

It's uncertain why they targeted a coach that was under contract - I'm sure there's often a call into various teams about various position coaches, since there's not much way of knowing who's available otherwise.

As well, the information is rarely found to be available to the press, so even people that sift through tons and tons of pages of info to find a nugget like this, typically won't.

----

There's speculation as to whether the team would've been interested in Jim Zorn had he become available before Mike Shula, but squash it.

I guess it's fair to speculate, given that the team has snapped up a number of guys who were outright fired only days before. Sean McDermott and John Matsko were both suddenly and quickly hot candidates in Carolina.

Zorn's a name, not necessarily a talent. Plus, he was actually available. Matsko and McDermott were quality hires because they fit with scheme and were solid coaches, but got fired.

Zorn was apparently fired because he's a pain in the ass. Sometimes the guy whose name you recognize doesn't mean he's the best candidate...it just means you don't know that many names.

2011-01-28T06:33:00.000-08:00

Carolina announced the hiring of coach Scott Turner as an offensive quality coach. He will assist offensive cordinator Rob Chudzinski with tape study and game prep.
Turner coached receivers at University of Pittsburgh, and as son of Norv Turner, grew up around the offense we run.

It's in question whether they will continue to pursue Ricky Proehl as an assistant as they already have 3 third tier assistants and need a ST assistant.

With Jeff Fisher assumed out in TN, Carolina may (and should) talk with Dave McGinnis, assistant head coach and LBs coach there. McGinnis coached Ron Rivera in Chicago, was the head coach in Arizona years ago, and is as brilliant as he is respected. That's a fantastic potential hire.

Asst OL coach Ray Brown hired; Skipper, Shuey?

2011-01-25T15:20:00.000-08:00

Ray Brown was hired as assistant line coach today. The former offensive lineman played in 263 games, starting 205, for the Cardinals, Redskins, 49ers, and Lions, with Pro Bowl and All-Pro honors in 2001. He won a championship ring with the Redskins in 1991.

Brown falls in line with what the team wants - a young teacher. He fits with what the Panthers seem to want with Ricky Proehl, a longtime player turned young coach to fit with a more experienced coach. Both Brown and Proehl have significant experience with the Coryell system as well.

As assistant line coach, Brown would assist with the linemen and TEs in practice, as well as aid in game tape and preparation, and quality control type duties. If the team hires Proehl to go with Brown, the pair of third-tier assistants would likely be a replacement for that QC position on offense. The team is still expected to hire an assistant DBs coach to go with Ron Meeks, who would share the third-tier defensive duties with Sam Mills III, and may hire a special teams assistant. Of the five possible positions, they only had a special teams assistant (Sam Garnes), defensive QC (Mills), and offensive QC (TEs coach Geep Chryst).

Jim Skipper interviewed with the new staff this week, which may be a good sign toward keeping him. However, the money won't be right (Skipper had accrued 9 years seniority, along with an assistant head coach title he won't likely have now), and he's 62, much older than the typical profile the team wants. The media is downtalking chances of him staying.

Bill Shuey's contract expired as LBs coach with the Eagles. Like DC Sean McDermott, his only real experience in coaching is with the Eagles. He's been there since 2003, working with the same defense we'll run here, with McDermott.

More personally, the firing must suck given that Shuey met his wife, Maura, with the Eagles; she works in the front office. Uncertain if he'll be a candidate, since he doesn't have much history outside the Eagles, but it wouldn't be unsurprising since he fits plenty of the criteria.

Matsko "fits"

2011-01-23T21:47:00.000-08:00

I may have finally figured out why John Matsko likely got hired here so quickly.

Not to say that merit didn't enter into it, or the lack of OL coaches on the market once you took away Tom Cable or Mike Solari.

He's familiar with our offense.

That might not initially seem to matter much, but the methodology with the Coryell-Gillman O is pretty unique. Not unlike running the West Coast offense, it's somewhat interchangeable between coaches, but requires a knowledge of it. You can't just walk in and start calling its plays.

So, Matsko. He was with Cam Cameron for three years in Baltimore. Cameron runs the Coryell O, as he had for years (it was one reason Norv Turner was expected to be a good fit in San Diego). He also recently had on staff Al Saunders, a Coryell staffer (and longtime Dick Vermeil aide).

Before that, Matsko himself was with the St. Louis Rams for their Super Bowl runs. The Greatest Show On Turf, of course, was coordinated by Mike Martz, a Coryell proponent.

And there's the link. He's a career Coryell running game guy. Power running, zone blocking. Give the QB enough time for the precision timing routes.

Scheme and coordinator questions: I have (a few) answers

2011-01-23T18:26:00.001-08:00

Coaching-staff junkies (geeks) like me get into the minutae a little harder than most, by design. So the first new staff since 2002 comes with new questions. Here, I'll try to answer (guessing, in most), questions I'd be most concerned with.

Will the coordinators be in the booth or on the field?

Rob Chudzinski will coordinate the offense, and may prefer the coaches' booth. He sat in the booth for San Diego the last two years, though Norv Turner did most of the playcalling (offensive coordinator Clarence Shelmon, who handled the running game and OL protections, was up there as well). I can't find info on Chudzinski's Cleveland tenure or Miami coordinating.

As would be expected, Mike Shula would call the plays to the QB.

On defense, Sean McDermott has called exclusively from the sidelines. He tried it once from the booth, and it didn't work out. Ron Rivera called from the sidelines as well, in San Diego, but did from the booth with Chicago. The only thing that would push McDermott to the sky would be an insistence from Rivera, based on how much/little input he'd want of his DC on the sidelines. Chances are, given the choice, McDermott would put former DC Ron Meeks in the booth, which is what would make an assistant DB coach (preferably a young one) a critical hire.

I prefer coordinators on the field, personally. Most teams put the WRs coach up there, and possibly the OC if wanted; they generally put the DBs coach up there, but some coordinators work from there on defense as well.

Offensive scheme?

Chudzinski is a disciple of the Don Coryell offense, getting it directly - Coryell taught Ernie Zampese, who passed it to Norv Turner. Coryell's offense has additional roots in Sid Gillman from the 60s.

It's a very vertical offense, though Turner's variant is considered more QB-friendly and takes more controlled chances. Mike Martz pilots the other, more open and aggressive form, though that seems to have calmed down more recently in Chicago. It has a lot of timing routes and precision in routes, and relies on a power running game from zone blocking (the last of which shouldn't be much of a departure).

Defensive scheme?

It's expected to be an odd-front 4-3 again, as they have been under John Fox (most 4-3 teams, honestly, do this anymore). Under tackle and nose-tackle combo inside, ends outside the OT. Only difference seems to be using the SLB on the line more.

But don't expect the same passive cover 2, or the disguise-scheme cover 3 base. Jim Johnson used extensive blitz packages and fire zone/zone blitz packages, and there's no reason to expect less of Rivera/McDermott.

Coverage base? Whereas Fox used a lot of disguised cover 3, and then Meeks' Tampa 2 using 2-deep and single high safety looks, the Jim Johnson defense varies things up much more. Expect more varied coverages and man coverage.

As for nickel, expect more 3-3 scheme and less vanilla 4-2 front. At one point, McDermott ran a 4-0-7 dime, putting a safety in the box in lieu of a single linebacker in the dime (he didn't have a Beason/Davis situation, however).

Assistant Update - Now With More Proehl

2011-01-22T21:25:00.000-08:00

Carolina's talking with Ricky Proehl about being on its coaching staff for 2011, it seems. Good for Ricky - he's overhyped (so many fans' "favorite receiver", yet never started and played on teams with the two best WR Carolina's been blessed with), but was always a class act and exceptional slot receiver.

Plus, I've never stood behind any future Carolina coaches for a sandwich at a local deli before, and Proehl would give me that odd personal artifact.

All outlets are pushing the Proehl story, but only Steve Reed from the Gaston Gazette is forwarding the potential rumor that the team is interested in him as an "assistant WR coach" or "assistant WR/ST coach", a job that would essentially make him a paid intern with expectant promotion in the future.

Other sites haven't confirmed. All suggest that the team is interested in talking with Jerry Sullivan, the WRs coach with the 49ers last year, who had been considering retirement. The feeling is that Sullivan might not coach long, giving Proehl an inevitable plan of succession.

Carolina interviewed Proehl Thursday. No news on Sullivan interviewing.

The team's only had three WR coaches in team history - Richard Williamson (who batted for Proehl's hiring with the press today) is the patriarch, having taken all but two years worth (2001, when Mike Mccoy was oddly placed there so Williamson could continue as OC, and 2010, after Williamson's retirement).

So what else?

Carolina still has plenty of other needs besides the current WR coach issue.

They need position coaches at TE, RB, DL, LB, as well. They would be expected to hire an offensive quality control coach, possibly an asst. OL coach, and potentially another defensive quality assistant or assistant DBs coach.