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Sunday, April 21, 2013

Rumor/Daydream

There's a rumor out that San Francisco is actively interested in trading into our area (12-15) in the first round.   It's probably bogus, but I'll bite.

For SF to do this right, by the draft value chart, they'd be giving up just a little value to give up the 31 and 33 picks.  Which, a team that wants to trade up, gives up a little value.  Just ask Marty Hurney.

Now, why would Carolina do that?  Need.  There are a couple parts to that, actually.

They need an extra pick, since they don't have a 3rd.  31, 33, and 44 make 3 picks in the top 50, which is more than fine by me.  Do you get one stellar player?  No, but you get an extra above average player for your trouble.  That's up to three starter level guys at once.

And that's where the other end of need comes in.   They're staring down what might be fairly ill-fitting need players.  NT, for right now, might be the lower value position at 14, but it's the bigger need for the moment.  And the under tackles at 14 are eager run stoppers, but they're not going to be mistaken for elite run guys.

But near 31, maybe Alabama's Jesse Williams is there.  Or UNC's Sylvester Williams.  I've seen both higher, but I don't know that both are going to be gone.  If so, you can always wait to 44 and grab John Jenkins, Jonathan Hankins.  Or just pick one of those guys at 33.

At 31/33, there's also a better value at guard.  Are there two potentially fantastic LG at 14?  Sure.  Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper are definitely better prospects than Larry Warford.  But not exponentially, and Warford looks more like a natural RG. Where the team's in need greatest, in my opinion.

If Carolina could fill two beefy needs in the top 33, then 44 becomes a wide open pick.  Which, right now, 14 and 44 are both picks that the team can't really afford to be 'cute' with.  But fill two needs in the top 33 - essentially two first round picks - and you're in business.  Keenan Allen?  Stedman Bailey?  Maybe a TE.  Why not?

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