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Thursday, November 1, 2012

DW Trade Unlikely, But His Future Grim

Not sure if it was the twitter talk, or just being the more expensive, potentially less versatile back - but it appears Deangelo Williams is slowly on the outs in Carolina two years after signing a massive deal.

First, I don't think a trade will actually happen - it just seems unlikely.  No backing to that, just doesn't feel plausible that anyone gives up enough.

Second - the media has it all wrong on his contract.   They complain of a $9.6 million acceleration - technically true in that there's $9.6 million in bonus proration after the year.   But that's not relevant to the "keep or cut" microcosm - that's about net gain/loss. It's past June. Next year's signing bonus is there, regardless.  $3.2 million. Stay, go, keep or cut.  So that being equal, you look at the other parts.

If you cut him, obviously you save the salary ($4.75 mil) and the roster bonus ($250k), unless you pay the roster bonus to trade him (which would be odd).  If you cut him, of course, you also have to deal with future bonus - since '13 counts either way you deal with $3.2x2 ('14-15), = 6.4 million.  Save $5 million, get charged $6.4 million, net loss of $1.4 million.  Sucks to lose money to not have a player, but the net difference isn't ridiculous to swallow and it allows you to drop $18 million total future money.

The decision to eventually let go of Williams -which seems to have been determined, regardless of whether he is traded tomorrow - is bizarre.

It's not that he's the guy you build around instead of Jonathan Stewart - Stewart is four years younger, has a lot fewer total touches (869 v/s 1095 - Williams, used sparingly for his age in the NFL, did also absorb almost 1030 touches at Memphis, v/s Stewart's 565 at Oregon).  Stewart is the right choice of the two.  But why, in the aftermath of Marty Hurney being fired, was it necessary to so quickly exclude Williams from being a part of things?   This past week, they specifically featured Williams (who ran well) on plays that would show him as valuable to a team looking for a certain thing - apparently, a wildcat runner - and barely used him at all, much less as a feature the way they had.

It's weird.

Well, at this point I'm almost interested in making a trade happen -- worst case a 3rd, because hopefully they wouldn't get a 4th or worse.  But, I'm guessing it'd end up a conditional pick (based on performance, not on whether he's rostered or not), and maybe a later player.   If they don't pull off a trade -- again, I still believe unlikely -- they might be pinched to deal him later.
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