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Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Analysing the RFA tenders

Thomas Davis received a first and third round tender. It's highly unlikely anyone will give Carolina that much, or a deal that would wrest him away. They'll likely keep him with a long term deal if they can get one done.

Matt Moore received a first and third round tender. Like Davis, it's almost impossible that anyone would sign him away for that. Will they keep him long term? Will he start? They've shown a short term commitment to him. That's as far as it goes.

Richard Marshall was given a second round tender. It's low for his value - he may get signed away for that. The Panthers have been rumored to value Marshall greatly - but not as much as Marshall or his agent does. Is this a message sent to Marshall? Coincidentally, while Chris Gamble was good, Marshall was better in 2009. But with Sherrod Martin, CJ Wilson, and Captain Munnerlyn possibly behind him, can he be worth this much? With Gamble having been paid, is Marshall in the budget?

Jeff King was given a second round tender. He could've been given a 5th round tender, but they upped him for the second straight year (he received this tender in 2009). They want him, but if he's kept longer he won't be paid a large amount.

Louis Leonard was given a second round tender. He plays into their rotation at DT, and has to earn more. He was promising in limited time, though. He has a great first step, gets into his man low, and may have been wasted as a 3-4 end.

Three players received original tenders (compensation is their original draft pick round):

James Anderson received a 3rd round tender, as a former 3rd round pick. Anderson looked good in preseason and serviceable in-season at WLB.

Tank Tyler received a 3rd round tender. The mid-season trade at DT looked good and played in relief of Damione Lewis, and occasionally next to him on passing downs instead of Charles Johnson. Like Leonard, he's got a likely spot in the rotation at DT.

CJ Wilson received a 7th round tender. The under-rated Wilson was our third best corner in preseason, but barely got a jersey at all in 2009. He sat while Captain Munnerlyn played nickel and Dante Wesley played special teams. Will Wesley be back? If not, Wilson may be the nickel and Munnerlyn may lose one of his jobs.

The team also had 4 Exclusive Rights FAs that were tendered:

Jordan Senn, LB - a killer special teams player picked up in the middle of the year

Nick Hayden - entering his third year at DT, Hayden's got a good first step and came in strong, but lost a lot of weight to move to under tackle and started slow.

Kenny Moore - surprise WR of the year. Moore stole time from Dwayne Jarrett last year, better than most surprise WRs of the year.

Charly Martin - another surprise at WR, Martin actually played more than Moore late in the season. The Colts had Austin Collie. The Patriots had Julian Edelman. We had Charly Martin, who had one reception and blocked a lot.

Un-tendered (and therefore free agents):

Rhys Lloyd - kicker who kicked off plenty, and very well in 2008; he dropped off a bit in 2009, and never took a place kick. Maybe should've. Could still stay, maybe they've seen enough.

Rob Petitti - RT who they brought in for a look late in the year. He excelled in the UFL, and bringing him in for camp would be smart, but maybe at a smaller price. If they don't, Geoff Schwartz is the obvious RT backup (which he was anyway), but that would keep him from having a shot at RG.

Quentin Teal - was able to play some at safety this year; he played a lot at special teams. Wasn't great at either. They were expected to bring in a good sized but rangy SS to play special teams; maybe now they need two.

Overall thoughts on the moves:

They probably won't make a move at DT this year. They'll go in with Kemoeatu, Lewis, Leonard, Tyler, Hayden, and second year Corvey Irvin.

They don't have a future at DT if neither Leonard nor Tyler work out. Both are free agents again next year. Lewis is 32, Kemoeatu 31. Leonard or Tyler (or both) working out and staying would be a big deal. If Leonard and Tyler don't work out, there's probably room for relief, but the team would be a year behind.

If Davis and/or Anderson don't stay past the 2010 season, there's no future at WLB either. In addition, if Landon Johnson doesn't get cut before then, he's out after the year end too.

Senn being on roster and Lloyd not? That's a sign they may want to go more traditionally with special teams - load with coverage players instead of specialists.

If Lloyd's gone, there's always the concern that John Kasay will take a meeting with Jerry Richardson very soon, and that suddenly Richardson will ask him to willingly go to pasture not unlike he did to Mike Rucker.
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